NFL best bets, Week 4: A Rhode Island Scumbag, Mike McCarthy and a 9-unit heater

The Rhode Island Scumbag Lock of the Year(tm) paid off in Week 3, but not without some drama. The New England Patriots were a tip-drill Hail Mary and an inch or two of Randall Cobb’s reach from losing to Zach Wilson and flushing a four-unit bet down the drain.

This, fortunately did not happen. Despite a 2-2 record last Sunday’s weighted bets pushed the Scumbag margins up to plus-nine units in just three weeks time (the other winner, Miami Dolphins at -6, provided a sweat-free cash). It was a profitable weekend for my picks as well, as a 4-0 record inched me closer to the Scumbag’s early-season mark of excellence and put our combined stakes up 17 units with a 16-5 record (technically 15-5, since we both jumped on the Steelers over the Browns in Week 2).

This week we’re getting back to basics, eschewing parlays and looking for value in the early lines. Which teams have ridden unsustainable starts to generous handicaps? Who’s ready to break out and deliver on untapped potential? Read on for his picks and mine. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes below.

I have given out a Lock of the Century and a Lock of the Year in this column. I am 2-0 on those, so that is something to be proud of.

However, I had some real lazy handicapping last weekend. I threw out two picks based on trends. In the words of legendary bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, “trends don’t pay the rent, my friend.”

Tennessee +1 first quarter result was a pipe dream I hoped was still alive from 2022. I also had all of my Patriots, Dolphins and Bills tickets tied into the over at Ford Field, which was basically free money last season. Nope. Nah. Nah, nah, na na na.

This is a new year and I need to be better. This week, I’m sticking to what has actually worked for me this year. Make my lines before seeing what Vegas thinks, then exploiting what I perceive to be weakness. What constitutes “weak”? Let’s call it a three-point difference between my spread and the sportsbook’s.

Last week, for example, I set Miami as -9.5 favorites over Payton’s powder-puff team and the line was released as 6.5. That will be how I handicap this week and we will see how it goes.