Travis Kelce is NFL's most valuable non-QB against the spread

We all know that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and the 32 signal-callers are usually going to be the biggest reason why a team wins or loses in a given week.

Before this season, I asked eight oddsmakers to rank all 32 starting QBs in terms of their value against the spread. Patrick Mahomes was No. 1 (7.56 points ATS), followed by Josh Allen (6.75) and Joe Burrow (6.75). And notably, it’s not even Week 4, and we’ve already seen several starters go down with injuries (Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young). That table can help give bettors a figure to go off of in adjusting their power ratings and figuring out their bets on a weekly basis.

But there are other position players who can impact the spread as well, most notably offensive skill position players. I asked six oddsmakers this time to rank their top 25 players against the spread then averaged their responses.

There are a variety of factors oddsmakers use in weighing the relative importance of players, including:

• – Type of offense
• – Opponent
• – Relative strength of team’s other skill position players
• – Strength of the team’s defense

As if he isn’t having a good enough week as it is, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (1.83 points ATS) was ranked as the NFL’s most valuable non-QB against the spread.

One other interesting player to highlight was Atlanta Falcons tailback Bijan Robinson. Every oddsmaker before the season had him ranked as worth zero points against the spread; when I checked back in this week, five of the six had him worth at least half a point.

“I think you could make a case he’s the best running back in the league,” one oddsmaker told me. “Right now it’s half [a point], but I might bump to a full point. These first few weeks have been telling.”

Here are the NFL’s most valuable players against the spread: