It might be time to make a new rule when it comes to over/under total bets. But I won’t make it official just because I don’t want to jinx it this week.
Let’s just say that it would be wise to take the under in games involving the Patriots. Don’t expect quarterback Mac Jones and the Patriots to fix their offensive issues this week, despite having a decent matchup against the Raiders’ defense.
More on the Patriots and Raiders in a bit. Here’s a quick review from last week’s bets: I finished 3–2 and was right again about another Jets game hitting the over.
It was a decent week, but as always, I’m here for perfection. Now, let’s make some money.
I’m not totally confident in this bet for reasons I’ll reveal in a bit, but it’s worth the risk. This total line is way too low for a game involving the 49ers, who have scored 30 points or more in every game this season. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns are held under 10 points, with Deshaun Watson still nursing an injured shoulder. Cleveland only managed three points with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starter during the loss to the Ravens before the team’s bye week. But reportedly the Browns will start PJ Walker if Watson isn’t cleared to play. Walker has experience with seven career starts, but the Browns likely will have a tough time generating points vs. the 49ers’ dominant defense. There are risks here, but all of the 49ers’ games have ended with at least 37 total points, including their 30–7 Week 1 win against the Steelers.
With Joe Burrow’s calf injury improving, expect a shootout in Cincinnati with two of the best offenses in the NFL. I probably should say two of the best offensive rosters in the league because the Bengals’ offense had struggled until last week’s victory against the Cardinals. Burrow displayed mobility in the pocket, which allowed him to extend plays, throwing three touchdowns to Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals might be back to form, but I do have concerns about them playing against the Seahawks, who recorded 11 sacks against the Giants before their bye week. As for the Seattle offense, Geno Smith has picked up where he left off last season. The Seahawks are averaging 32.6 points during their three-game winning streak.
The Raiders defense has been a bright spot for most of the season. They’re no longer the unit that ranked near the bottom of most major defensive categories, which had been the case for many years. The Raiders held the Packers to 13 points and forced Jordan Love into three interceptions during their upset win Monday night. They also limited the Chargers’ high-octane offense to 24 points and didn’t allow them to score in the second half when the two met in Week 4. Las Vegas now gets the struggling Patriots, who have only scored a combined three points against the Cowboys and Saints during their ugly two-game losing streak. New England also has issues defensively due to injuries, but Las Vegas’s offense isn’t known for scoring frequently. This could be a boring game, but boring is good for the under bets.
I was surprised to see this high of a total line for two teams that have struggled offensively in recent weeks. The Cardinals were held to 20 points against the Bengals, and only generated 16 points vs. the 49ers the week prior. The Rams got back Cooper Kupp but only managed 14 points against the Eagles. Yes, the Cardinals don’t have the Eagles’ defense, but they know how to create pressure for opposing quarterbacks (Arizona has 15 sacks this season). The Rams’ banged-up offensive line hasn’t allowed Matthew Stafford to maintain a rhythm for long stretches. Also, the Rams’ defense has been much better than most football pundits expected entering the season. Los Angeles has held opponents to 23 points or less in four out of five games. I’m not saying this will be a low-scoring affair, but it’s hard seeing these two teams combining for 50 points.
The Jets have helped me win over bets the past two weeks. Let’s keep it rolling, but it won’t be easy against the Eagles’ stout defensive front. I have confidence in Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett accounting for the Eagles’ pass rush. He will probably come up with creative ways to move quarterback Zach Wilson away from the pressure. Wilson tends to play at his best when he’s scrambling out of the pocket, while keeping his eyes downfield for wide receiver Garrett Wilson. New York could also have a balanced attack with running back Breece Hall, who rushed for 177 yards vs. the Broncos last week. I know plenty needs to go right for the Jets to be a productive offense against the Eagles. But there’s also the option of the Eagles dropping 30 points on the Jets’ defense. It won't be easy, but the Eagles are capable of scoring touchdowns against any defense in the league, even units as good as the Jets’ defense.
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