Which Team Is Primed for a Breakout Season in the NBA?

Preseason games are underway—anyone else glued to Payton Pritchard’s preseason performances in Boston?—so let’s rip open this week’s Mailbag.

A reminder: submit questions anytime on X (formerly known as Twitter) or Instagram. Got more to say? Send me an email at mannixmailbag@gmail.com.

There’s a lot of parity in the NBA this season. Who is the team you think could break out? —Mark, Washington, DC

There is incredible parity this year. Putting together our season preview—pick that up, by the way—I counted 12 teams that I expect to be in the playoff mix in the Western Conference this season. And Houston, under Ime Udoka, will be better than many anticipate, especially in the second half of the season.

The team I’m most interested in though is New Orleans. The Pelicans were 23–13 before Zion Williamson’s injury last season. The team cratered after it. Zion is a dynamic isolation player. He ranked fourth in the NBA in points per possession (1.16) in iso situations last season and first in field goal percentage (60.5%). His 19.1 points in the paint was No. 1 in the NBA.

Safe to say getting him back is a game changer. New Orleans has played Zion at center some in the preseason, with positive results. They have a terrific second star (Brandon Ingram) and a strong supporting cast around him. If Zion can stay healthy, that’s a top-four team in the West.

Do you think this could be Klay Thompson’s last season in Golden State? —@steez415

Let’s start with Klay’s comments this week to The Athletic, which quizzed him on the subject:

“I wouldn’t want to go anywhere else,” Thompson said. “To play for one franchise, man? That’s so rare. In any sport. Football. Baseball. Basketball. Australian Rules Football. To play for one club is insane. It’s some real legendary stuff. Even what Udonis Haslem did. He’s revered in Miami. Locally. That’s what I cherish. Going around the country, going around the world and people from Northern California or Warriors fans in general are just so prideful about the Warriors. And I was here before banners were hung up. So in a way, it’s our baby. You want to ride it out. I’ve just been so lucky to be a part of this franchise. It’d be so hard to envision myself in another uniform.”

So Thompson wants to stay. And the Warriors want him, too. For months now Golden State has been operating like a team that wants to squeeze as much as it can out of the Thompson–Stephen Curry–Draymond Green core that has brought so much success to the Bay Area. Curry has three years left on the four-year, $215 million deal he signed in 2021. Green inked a four-year, $100 million contract last summer.

Thompson, in the final year of a five-year, $190 million deal, probably lands somewhere in the middle. A four-year deal in the $30–35 million per season range sounds reasonable, at least to the NBA executives I talk to. There is no sign of acrimony between Thompson and the Warriors. Bet on the two sides getting something done.

Joel Embiid to Team USA? Is it a bad sign that Team USA has to pursue naturalized citizens like an NBA team pursues free agents? —Tomas, Chicago

Sign of the times. Team USA’s pursuit of Embiid (who is from Cameroon and also has a French citizenship) predates the disappointing fourth-place finish at the World Cup. USA Basketball’s leadership, led by Grant Hill, identified size as being a weakness of the U.S. roster, which is loaded with the kind of long, switchy wings NBA teams love but is light on traditional bigs, who are impact players in the international game.

Put simply: This team needed Embiid. Team USA will send its A-team to Paris next summer but a team led by LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Curry might not be enough to top a Serbian team led by Nikola Jokic or a French team that could suit up Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. Embiid is a one-man paint protector who offers Team USA the post scorer they have been lacking.

Don’t start printing Embiid jerseys just yet, though. Embiid has injuries seemingly every season. If he limps to the finish in this one, don’t count on him sacrificing a summer of recovery just to wear the red, white and blue.

Any surprises from the GM survey? —Harold, Reno

I love the GM survey. And credit to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann for putting in the work to get it done. I wouldn’t say there were any shockers. I’m a little less bullish on the Celtics than the GM’s (Boston’s thin front line worries me) and I probably would be more likely to start an NBA team with Wembanyama or Luka Doncic than Jokic, who will turn 29 this season.

I thought it was interesting that the GM’s voted the Grizzlies’ acquisition of Marcus Smart as the most underrated offseason acquisition. Smart-to-Memphis wasn’t the splashiest offseason trade but it was a necessary one. Smart can slide into the starting point guard spot with Ja Morant out and play alongside him when he’s back. His defensive versatility gives the Grizz what they lost in Dillon Brooks and his leadership will be valuable on a team looking to take the next step.

Speaking of Brooks, he finished tied for third in the most underrated acquisition vote. I think that’s right. For all the drama Brooks created at the end of last season, he’s an elite defender who is just entering his prime. If he improves his shot selection, he will play a big role in Houston this season.

On a recent trip to Houston, I asked Udoka how he viewed the way things ended for Brooks in Memphis.

“I don’t know all the ins and outs of it,” says Udoka. “Obviously some of it was brought on himself with the media stuff and all that and he understands who he is as a player and that certain things may have gotten out of hand. For me, it’s be who you are and at your best, and I’ll do the talking for you. I know he’s excited to have a fresh start here.”