The Saints will host the Jaguars for Thursday Night Football. The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook list the Saints as slight 1.5 point favorites and the 39.5 game total is one of the lowest of the week, and with doubts about the health of Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence, it’s important to be selective with player props. When looking at the current market, I am leaning toward the under on most receiving and rushing props. Both defenses are in the top half of the league, with the Saints being the better unit. Jacksonville has the higher-scoring offense for the season. It’s hard to see a shootout developing in the 'Big East'.
It’s not fun to bet the unders, though, so let's live a little and bet some overs instead!
Alvin Kamara Week 7 Player Prop Prediction
Alvin Kamara has a great matchup against the Jaguars in Week 7.
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
BET: Alvin Kamara over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kamara has done this in two of three games this season, and Jacksonville is allowing an average of 40 yards per game to running backs. What’s even better? The Jags have allowed the third-most catches (39) to the position, and no running back has been targeted more on a per-game basis this season (8.3 targets per game). Keep an eye on the reception prop market when it comes out, too.
Chris Olave Week 7 Player Prop Prediction
BET: Chris Olave longest reception over 23.5 yards (-115)
Not only have the Jaguars allowed the sixth-most passing yards this year, they have allowed a completion of 28 or more yards in every single game this season. Olave, who owns a 40% target share and whose average depth of target is over 16, should see a deep ball or two in this close matchup. He has exceeded this prop in four of six matchups this year.
I like the even money here for Etienne to score his sixth touchdown of the season. Yes, the Saints have been very tough on running backs, however, with Trevor Lawrence banged up, we should expect to see the Jaguars trying to get as much as they can out of Etienne. I’m staying away from his rushing yards prop as the Saints have yet to allow a back to gain 65 yards on the ground. Etienne is averaging only four yards per attempt this season, while the Saints are allowing only 3.54 yards per attempt. With the line set at 60.5, I don’t feel comfortable betting either side of that prop. However, even money for a TD is worth a shot. The Jaguars rusher has four rushing scores in the alst four games. Sure, the Saints have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, but that just means they’re due to surrender one this Thursday night.
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