Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou roundtable: Would an Ngannou upset be the biggest in combat sports history?
Francis Ngannou is playing with house money. Now can he bring down the house in Saudi Arabia?
The lineal MMA heavyweight champion steps into the ring to face lineal boxing heavyweight champion Tyson Fury in a matchup that few (except for maybe Ngannou himself) thought was guaranteed to happen. Since parting ways with the UFC earlier this year, Ngannou has made all the right moves, culminating in his lucrative duel with Fury.
But when Ngannou actually steps through the ropes, is he due for a reality check?
MMA Fighting’s Damon Martin, Mike Heck, and Alexander K. Lee put their heads together to figure out just how unlikely an Ngannou win on Saturday would be and where both fighters could be headed following their crossover bout.
1. Where would an Ngannou win rank among the greatest upsets in combat sports history?
Martin: Francis Ngannou beating Tyson Fury would be, unequivocally, the biggest upset not only in combat sports history, but potentially across all sports.
If we’re just talking about boxing specifically, the fight that will inevitably draw comparisons is when James “Buster” Douglas shocked the world by knocking out Mike Tyson, but even that’s a stark contrast to what Ngannou is attempting to do on Saturday. Douglas may have been an unknown when he climbed in the ring against one of the most vicious power punchers to ever strap on a pair of boxing gloves, but he still had more than 30 professional fights on his résumé at the time.
Meanwhile, Ngannou has zero. None. Zilch.
Of course, Ngannou fought the best of the best in the UFC, where he was heavyweight champion before signing this fight, but striking in MMA isn’t the same as boxing. That’s like comparing rugby to football — yes, both sports involve a ball and sometimes look like a human demolition derby, but that doesn’t mean they’re the same.
The only thing propping up Ngannou in this fight is what Joe Rogan called his “nuclear option,” which means the immense power he possesses with his punches. Under the right circumstances, Ngannou can turn anybody’s head into a Pez dispenser — just ask Alistair Overeem about that one — but he has to land those punches to do the same thing to Fury. Deontay Wilder, who arguably hits just as hard as Ngannou, couldn’t put Fury away with his best punch and he’s actually a championship-level boxer!
It’s all to say Ngannou’s chances of winning this fight are realistically slim to none, which means if he actually pulls it off, Buster Douglas, the Miracle on Ice guys, and the Leicester City Foxes can all take a seat, because there’s a new king in town.
Heck: Based on betting odds, there are certainly bigger upsets in combat sports (as of now, Fury is around a -1400 favorite), but for my money personally, this might be the biggest one ever.
As Damon said, the best comparison that comes to mind is Buster Douglas knocking out Tyson in the 10th round in February 1990. Douglas was anywhere from a 37-to-1 to a 42-to-1 underdog by the time he made the walk to the ring inside the Tokyo Dome, and despite being knocked down in the eighth round by a ferocious Tyson uppercut, Douglas dominated the fight en route to getting the late finish with a blistering combination. Boxing pundits predicted “another 90-second annihilation” for Tyson, but Douglas proved the naysayers wrong, much like Ngannou will try to do.
The thing to remember when comparing these fights? Douglas had 35 professional boxing bouts heading in, Ngannou doesn’t, in fact, he doesn’t even have an official BoxRec page at the moment. Ngannou beating the greatest heavyweight of this generation — and quite possibly the greatest heavyweight in boxing history — would be a simply unbelievable feat. One that would give any single person hope that they can do anything and be successful. One that would send a ripple effect throughout the combat sports world the likes of which we have never seen before.
While I am happy Ngannou is getting the bag here, and while there is a part of me as an MMA media member that would love to see something insane on Saturday, if we do, it would be the most shocking thing I have ever seen in combat sports.
Lee: There’s no question in my mind that an Ngannou knockout would immediately immortalize him alongside Douglas in the annals of fighting’s greatest upsets, I’m just not quite ready to anoint it the most shocking ever.
Don’t worry, I won’t go on another Matt Serra whomping Georges St-Pierre tirade (really, you can click here for that), but I am willfully stopping myself from being overly affected by recency bias. Because I know myself, and I know that if Ngannou pulls off any kind of win against Fury on Saturday, I’ll immediately be tweeting IN ALL CAPS LIKE THIS.
But the fact is that numerous recent boxing bouts (for example, Andy Ruiz was around +1100 for his first fight with Anthony Joshua, Ngannou is currently +750 on DraftKings) have seen the underdog facing longer odds, and for good reason: There’s a predictability to a standard boxing match. We usually have actual, substantial data to work with, and plenty of it. When a massive upset happens in the sweet science, it’s shocking because of how much we know (or think we do).
An Ngannou win would be inexplicable, but at the same time the fight even existing kind of places it outside the boundaries of conventional thinking, doesn’t it? And by that logic, shouldn’t we forego ruling out any result? If Ngannou takes Fury out, it would somehow fit neatly into this improbable timeline that Ngannou has constructed for himself, to the point that someday we might look back on Ngannou beating Fury as the start of a legendary second career chapter and not the culmination of the unlikeliest of events.
2. From 1-10, how excited are you for this fight?
Lee: I was a solid 7 when the fight was first announced and I’ll be no lower than an 8 come fight night.
If you couldn’t tell by my answer to the first question, I am embracing the chaos wholeheartedly. I’ve sat through too much influencer boxing to be all high and mighty about this freak show fight, and even if it turns out to be 10 rounds of dreary domination by Fury, I’ll still be glued to my seat for those 30 minutes of action.
I choose to believe that Ngannou can land a life-changing bomb, just as he has so many times in MMA. I choose to believe that Fury will chase a knockout if he truly senses that Ngannou is no threat to him. I choose to believe that these two might start exchanging freely in the last few rounds, if only to put on a show for anyone shelling out close to 100 big ones to legally witness this.
These kinds of spectacles don’t come along often and should be cherished, in my — admittedly warped at this point — opinion, because when are you going to actually see the two best active fighters in the world (sorry Conor, but Floyd had already retired twice by the time you fought him) in their respective disciplines trade legit punches? As long as the UFC holds the cards, not anytime soon.
Ngannou spoke this fight into reality and that alone demands my rapt attention.
Martin: Even though I don’t actually expect the fight to stay competitive for very long, I’m sitting around a 6. Allow me to explain.
As much as we all love to see the best against the best — in this case it would be Fury fighting Oleksandr Usyk and Ngannou facing Jon Jones — combat sports has long been built around spectacle. Muhammad Ali vs. Antonio Inoki, a win over Kimbo Slice leading to Sean Gannon signing with the UFC, and let’s not forget McGregor vs. Mayweather — it’s all a show that we have to know won’t end well, yet we can’t look away.
There will certainly be a small section of fans tuning in because they legitimately believe Ngannou will win, but the vast majority are just tuning in to watch the madness unfold. Consider me part of the latter group, because as already stated, Ngannou doesn’t stand much of a chance to actually win, but there’s always that one percent possibility that something truly shocking might happen.
Plus, it’s hard not to root for Ngannou in these situations given what we all know about the trials and tribulations this man faced just to become a professional fighter, and then the long, drawn-out saga to eventually leave the UFC and somehow manifest a dream fight against Fury into reality. By that standard alone, Ngannou has my respect, and I’m not ashamed to plunk down $80 to watch him live out his dream (even if I fully expect the fight to end in a nightmare).
Heck: If I’m being honest, my excitement levels were pretty low earlier this month. While that number hasn’t changed very much, after getting sucked into the awfulness that was the Logan Paul vs. Dillon Danis and KSI vs. Tommy Fury one-two punch from the Prime Card, I understand that Ngannou is going to try his ass off, and Fury understands losing to Ngannou would be the most catastrophic thing that could happen to his legacy.
As far as a number goes, it’s gone from a 4, to maybe a 5.75. Perhaps, that number may hit an even 6 by the time the fighters make the walk, but that’s the best I can give it.
Again, I’m thrilled Ngannou is getting this chance he never would’ve gotten had he re-signed with the UFC, plus the massive boost to his bank account this fight will give him, but I can’t confidently write that I’m giving Ngannou much of a chance here, so I sort of understand what we’re going to see.
3. Assuming Fury wins and moves on to fight Usyk, what’s next for Ngannou?
Heck: When this fight is over, Ngannou will return to the wonderful world of the PFL having scratched the boxing itch, but much like a mosquito bite that you don’t see coming, it will likely resurface.
I don’t see a world where this is the only time Ngannou boxes at this point in his career, and if this pay-per-view extravaganza with Fury draws the amount of intrigue and dollars I think it might (even at the preposterous price of $80), other promoters will probably call upon Ngannou for his services.
After this fight, Ngannou becomes the most important piece of the PFL puzzle. Despite getting investors, including SRJ Sports Investments out of Saudi Arabia, the promotion has a lot invested in Ngannou — not just financially, but for the future of the promotion. PFL needs this Ngannou investment to work, and work big, because it’s costing them a lot of money to not only pay Ngannou to compete, along with the other services that he’ll provide, but also to Ngannou’s upcoming opponents.
The biggest question I have when it comes to the aftermath of this fight is how will the community view Ngannou if he gets run over on Saturday? Will his appeal still be there? Seems easy to say yes, but as we’ve seen time after time in this sport, just walking into the ring, or cage, isn’t enough to please the toughest community of fans to please in the sports world. I hope people give Ngannou his flowers for doing this, even if it doesn’t go his way.
Lee: I don’t think Ngannou is done with boxing.
This is probably the biggest bag he can get, but if he shows even a modicum of competency or — imagine this — scores a knockdown on Fury, boxers will be lining up for their shot at the former UFC heavyweight king. Before Ngannou secured the Fury fight, plenty of names were thrown out as possible opponents for him, including the arguably better suited Deontay Wilder, and I don’t think those fights are out of reach.
He simply has to perform adequately for a few memorable stretches on Saturday, and I think there’s a chance he will. At the same time, he’ll look vulnerable enough that any boxer worth his salt will look at Ngannou as a lucrative matchup that would also give them unique credibility. How many boxers can say they knocked out a UFC heavyweight champion? If Fury wins a decision, you can bet there will be stars eagerly awaiting their chance to put Ngannou down for the count.
So do what you’ve got to do with the PFL, Francis. Make that right, make some easy money, and remind everyone what brought you to the dance. Then get back to practicing that in-ring footwork and spacing, because you’ll have no shortage of future boxing challengers.
Martin: Well, Ngannou will definitely return to MMA, with his PFL debut likely happening sometime in early 2024. The real question then becomes, who does he fight?
Would there be any real interest in Ngannou fighting the winner of Denis Goltsov vs. Renan Ferreira? In case you didn’t know, that’s the matchup that will crown the next heavyweight champion at the upcoming PFL finale card in November. The winner could potentially shift right into a showdown against Ngannou, with a guaranteed minimum $2 million purse attached as a reward.
But let’s throw a curveball here and think about PFL trying to sell pay-per-views for Ngannou’s debut.
While the Derrick Lewis option appeared perfect once he very briefly became a free agent, PFL would be smart to set up Ngannou in a “champ vs. champ” fight against Bellator heavyweight king Ryan Bader, especially if the goal is drumming up interest for the card.
Bader may not be the biggest name in the sport, but he’s definitely well known and he’s actually put together a pretty impressive résumé at heavyweight. To add to that, Bader just lost out on his recent title defense against Linton Vassell, which means his days as Bellator champion may already be coming to an end, with the promotion likely being sold in the near future.
So that leaves us with Ngannou vs. Bader headlining a PFL pay-per-view in 2024. Why the hell not?