Week 8 Air Yards Breakdown: George Pickens Continues to Make Big Plays

In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like⁠—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.

Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.

On to Week 8:

Week 7 Air Yards Leaderboard

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???? Jalin Hyatt
???? Travis Kelce pic.twitter.com/9Nl9D7TDiv

— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 26, 2023

Week 7 Summary

Travis Kelce Delivers in Divisional Matchup Against the Chargers
Kelce had the most air yards (130) and PPR points (35.9) by any tight end this season and reminded everyone how much of a difference-maker he can be at a onesie position. He scored a full 13.0 more points than Mark Andrews and Darren Waller, whose respective 22.8 and 22.3 points were the seventh and 10th best tight end performances through seven weeks. It’s easy to forget that Patrick Mahomes does have a true No. 1 wide receiver. He just happens to be a tight end.

George Pickens Lifts Steelers Offense

Newsflash: Pickens is good at football. Even with Diontae Johnson back in the lineup, Pickens finished with the sixth-most air yards (131) and a 63.9% team air yards share en route to his second consecutive game of at least 15.0 PPR points. He had a pair of 20-yard grabs on back-shoulder throws, and made another key 31-yard catch deep down the middle of the field late in the fourth quarter. Through seven weeks, Pickens has the 10th-highest average depth of target (13.1) and more of those middle of the field targets would help offset some of the variance in Pickens’s profile.

Tyrod Taylor Leads Giants Offense to its Best Performance Since Week 2
Sunday was a glimpse of what the Giants could be and how many analysts expected them to perform prior to the season. Tight end Darren Waller saw more than seven targets for the third consecutive game and finished with 98 yards and a score. Running back Saquon Barkley had a vintage catch-and-run touchdown to put New York up 14-0. And rookie wideout Jalin Hyatt had the second-most air yards (168) in Week 7, reeling in two of his deep shots for 73 yards.

Taylor, who had the second-most air yards per attempt (9.64 yards) last week, helped the Giants look capable, albeit against a Commanders’ coverage unit that ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback (0.115). But, it’s unlikely Taylor will take over starting duties with Daniel Jones’s $160 million contract standing in the way. Either way, the offense should benefit from left tackle Andrew Thomas’s eventual return. The Giants face a tough matchup against the Jets, who could return corners Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.

Week 8 Lookahead

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is Beginning to Break Through … But Is It Enough?
Through four weeks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had the lowest average depth of target (3.2 yards) out of 153 qualified wide receivers. It’s hard to make a fantasy impact with such shallow targets and without the gamebreaking yards-after-the-catch talent of someone like Deebo Samuel or Tyreek Hill. Since the Seahawks Week 5 bye, Smith-Njigba’s usage has started to shift.

His aDOT more than doubled to 7.6 yards in a Week 6 loss to the Bengals, and his breakout could’ve arrived then if Geno Smith didn’t miss Smith-Njigba on a walk-in 30-yard touchdown. With DK Metcalf sidelined with ribs and hip injuries, the rookie finally broke through. His aDOT increased again to 10.0 yards and he scored 16.3 PPR points, good enough to be the WR15 on the week.

Smith-Njigba also surpassed an 80% route participation rate for the second straight game. Currently, Smith-Njigba’s biggest hurdle is his usage close to the end zone: He has only been on the field for about half of Seattle’s snaps inside the 10-yard line. As the offensive line returns to full health, Smith-Njigba could benefit from the Seahawks opening up their passing game. Keep an eye on Tyler Lockett’s injury status, as he missed Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring issue.

Josh Downs Continues to Rise

Downs entered the NFL draft as one of the cleanest prospects at receiver, a small, slot type who blended crisp route running with an ability to play larger than his 5’9”, 171 pound frame à la Lockett. Size concerns pushed him into the third round in the NFL draft, but it appears both the NFL and fantasy drafters undervalued him coming into the season. Downs crossed 90 air yards for the first time on Sunday, finishing as the WR4 with 23.5 PPR points.

He did most of his damage on a 19-yard throw that he took another 40 yards to the end zone, and he was also targeted on three other attempts of at least 18-plus air yards. (He caught two of them, breaking free through busted coverage on a corner route for a 34-yard gain and improvised on a Minshew scramble for a 20-yard catch.) Downs should remain in the flex conversation with Gardner Minshew at the helm. He faces a Saints defense that has allowed the third-most points to slot receivers over the last six weeks.

Dalton Kincaid’s Average Depth of Target Remains Low
With Dawson Knox out of the lineup with a wrist injury, Kincaid caught eight passes for 75 yards on his way to a career-best 15.5 PPR points. Nearly 77% of Kincaid’s fantasy production came against zone, and the first-round rookie continually found soft spots in the defense for easy catches. His game against the Patriots offers a window into the current benefits and limitations on Kincaid’s role.

Kincaid has an aDOT of 3.67 yards⁠—which is the 92nd shallowest aDOT among 96 qualified receivers⁠—and has only seen four targets 10 or more yards down the field. A lack of deeper targets restricts Kincaid’s ability to make splash plays, but that isn’t inherently a negative. He has the third-highest open score among tight ends—a solid indicator that Kincaid finds room to work prior to the throw. Kincaid can continue to find success as a PPR sponge, with the hope that his role expands and his first touchdown isn’t far away.

Quick Prayer Yards Notes

Week 7 Prayer Yards Leaderboard

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???? Chris Olave
???? Calvin Ridley and Gabe Davis pic.twitter.com/H8UNlCll06

— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) October 26, 2023

• Listen to Doug Pederson describe how defenses have slid coverage toward Calvin Ridley with Zay Jones out of the lineup. Ridley has struggled to find consistent, bankable targets⁠ (remember his ridiculous sideline grab from Thursday night?⁠), but that could change following the team’s Week 9 bye.
• Gabe Davis has vanished after scoring in four consecutive games. His boom-bust season is part of the package.
• Amari Cooper’s season-long prayer yards percentage has ticked up to 55.7%, ranking 98th out of 110 qualified receivers. Poor quarterback play will create uneven performances, and Sunday’s matchup against the Seahawks might be tougher than expected. Seattle ranks fifth in dropback epa allowed (-0.117) and 10th in dropback success rate allowed (45.4%) since rookie Devon Witherspoon returned in Week 2.

Data Sources

• Yards, receptions, touchdowns, air yards and EPA pulled via nflverse
• Catchable air yards, prayer yards and play action data from FTN Data via nflverse
• Personnel data pulled from Joseph Hefner’s formations app
• Route participation pulled via Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report

Related: Week 8 Fantasy Rankings