Predictions: Who will be our 11 UFC champions by the end of 2024?
After one of the craziest years in MMA history, it’s more abundantly clear than ever that no one in MMA actually knows anything. (Well, except our ol’ pal Guilherme Cruz, who won this exercise in 2023 with a sterling 50 percent hit rate. Well done, Gui.) But it’s New Year’s Day, which means it’s about that time to peer into our crystal balls and give it another shot.
Who will be UFC champions at the end of 2024? MMA Fighting staffers Shaun Al-Shatti, Conner Burks, Guilherme Cruz, Mike Heck, Eric Jackman, Alexander K. Lee, E. Casey Leydon, Steven Marrocco, Damon Martin, Jed Meshew, and José Youngs make our selections below.
Join in the fun by letting us know your own picks in the comments and catch the podcast version of this roundtable as well. Trust us: It’s much, much more difficult than you’d expect.
Heavyweight
Jon Jones (4): Heck, Leydon, Martin, Youngs
Tom Aspinall (4): Al-Shatti, Burks, Jackman, Meshew
Jailton Almeida (3): Cruz, Lee, Marrocco
What a mess.
As we enter 2024, Jon Jones ostensibly holds the UFC heavyweight title, Tom Aspinall ostensibly holds the interim belt, 41-year-old Stipe Miocic is the eternal No. 1 contender for ... reasons (?) ... despite sitting out for close to three years — and it’s entirely possible that, one, this may be the final year of Jones’ career, and two, the heavyweight strap may not be defended against anyone of real consequence to the division for all of 2024.
That grim reality left our team split in a near three-way tie between Jones, Aspinall, and dark horse contender Jailton Almeida to exit the new year holding gold. Though considering the many uncertainties still surrounding the UFC’s big-boy division — When will Jones be healthy enough to return? Will Aspinall sit out or be forced to defend his interim title? What happens if Miocic actually wins? — your guess is as good as ours as to how 2024 plays out.
Light Heavyweight
Alex Pereira (1): Lee
Jamahal Hill (3): Heck, Marrocco, Martin
Magomed Ankalaev (5): Al-Shatti, Burks, Cruz, Jackman, Meshew
Jiri Prochazka (2): Leydon, Youngs
Speaking of messes and long layoffs, light heavyweight finds itself in a similar (though not quite as terrible) predicament, with UFC champ Alex Pereira potentially being forced to sit out the entire first half of 2024 if the promotion opts to wait for Jamahal Hill to recover from his torn Achilles. Pereira and Hill are going to fight sometime in the new year, that much we know. But will the division get a second title bout in 2024?
At least least seven of our staffers believe so, with the quintet of Al-Shatti, Burks, Cruz, Jackman, and Meshew placing their bets on Magomed Ankalaev to get through Johnny Walker on Jan. 13 and then take care of business in his second shot at the belt.
Only Lee, it seems, has faith in Pereira to escape 2024 unscathed, but the champ has defied his doubters plenty of times before, and a pick this optimistic feels fairly on-brand for “The Prince of Positivity.”
Middleweight
Sean Strickland (0): N/A
Dricus du Plessis (0): N/A
Khamzat Chimaev (9): Al-Shatti, Burks, Heck, Jackman, Lee, Marrocco, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Israel Adesanya (2): Cruz, Leydon
Good lord. Talk about no respect.
Not a single soul among our 11-person team seemingly believes in MMA Fighting’s 2023 Fighter of the Year Sean Strickland to replicate his breakout year and fend off the challenges that loom in 2024. Strickland’s campaign starts early with a grudge match against Dricus du Plessis on Jan. 20 in the first UFC pay-per-view of the year — and if he gets through that tough test, things won’t get any easier as Khamzat Chimaev likely awaits. Chimaev has been a trendy pick to end the year as champion for four years running now, but 2024 truly feels like the year everything is finally lined up for the Chechen wolf.
Nine members of the team believe Chimaev’s coronation will soon be upon us, while defending champ Cruz and Leydon zigged everyone else’s zag by throwing their lots in with Israel Adesanya to end his self-imposed hiatus and kick off his third middleweight title reign.
Welterweight
Leon Edwards (1): Martin
Belal Muhammad (0): N/A
Shavkat Rakhmonov (10): Al-Shatti, Burks, Cruz, Heck, Jackman, Lee, Leydon, Marrocco, Meshew, Youngs
Speaking of no respect, what does Leon Edwards have to do to stop feeling like Rodney Dangerfield around here? A year after zero members of the team picked Edwards to leave 2023 still holding gold — only for Edwards to fend off Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington and end the year on another Fighter of the Year short list — we nearly did it all over again. Martin was the sole MMA Fighting staffer to believe in the staying power of “Rocky” (who, by the way, still remains unbeaten for eight years straight). The rest of us decided to totally not learn from our mistakes and instead pile onto the Shavkat Rakhmonov bandwagon.
The rematch between Edwards and Belal Muhammad will likely kick off the new year for the welterweight title picture, but Rakhmonov is close behind — and his 100 percent finish rate has the majority of our team convinced that 2024 will be the year of the first Kazakh champ.
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev (10): Al-Shatti, Burks, Cruz, Jackman, Lee, Leydon, Marrocco, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Arman Tsarukyan (1): Heck
Islam Makhachev is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in MMA for a reason, folks.
The 32-year-old lightweight champ is in the prime of a likely Hall of Fame career and could end 2024 as the all-time leader for consecutive UFC title defenses at 155 pounds if he gets through potential matchups against Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. That alone is reason enough for our team to believe in Makhachev, though Heck at least threw a wild card into the mix with his selection of Tsarukyan, who may need to pray for a short-notice opportunity if he hopes to cut through the crowded line of lightweight contenders in 2024.
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski (4): Cruz, Jackman, Martin, Youngs
Ilia Topuria (5): Al-Shatti, Lee, Leydon, Marrocco, Meshew
Arnold Allen (1): Burks
Movsar Evloev (1): Heck
Is 2024 the year greatness finally evades Alexander Volkanovski?
Seven of our 11 teammates seem to think so. At age 35, Volkanovski is already the oldest champion under 170 pounds in UFC history. Now that he’s set to face undefeated blue-chipper Ilia Topuria on Feb. 17 at UFC 298 — less than four months after he suffered a devastating, potentially career-altering knockout at the hands of Makhachev — Volkanovski appears to be more vulnerable than ever before. That being said, the reigning featherweight champ still has never lost to any man alive below 155 pounds, so Topuria will have his work cut out for him if he wants to kick off a new era for the division next month in Anaheim.
Bantamweight
Sean O’Malley (2): Heck, Marrocco
Marlon Vera (1): Meshew
Merab Dvalishvili (6): Al-Shatti, Burks, Cruz, Jackman, Leydon, Martin
Umar Nurmagomedov (1): Lee
Cory Sandhagen (1): Youngs
Now this is a weird one.
No UFC division drew a greater diversity of responses for this exercise than men’s bantamweight, but is that because no one really knows what to expect from the Sean O’Malley era? As we’ve already seen with his first title defense, which is set for March 9 at UFC 299 against Marlon Vera, O’Malley will likely exist in that rare class of UFC beltholder who gets to tailor-make his own championship experience. Is Vera a clear-cut No. 1 contender? Absolutely not. Hell, he’s probably not even in the top five choices. But will he provide both the UFC and O’Malley with the biggest collective bang for their buck? Indeed.
That fact, along with O’Malley’s generally inactive schedule, make bantamweight much more of a dart throw than most UFC divisions in 2024.
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja (6): Al-Shatti, Cruz, Heck, Jackman, Lee, Leydon
Manel Kape (3): Marrocco, Martin, Meshew
Muhammad Mokaev (2): Burks, Youngs
Is 2024 the year the men’s flyweight division passes its torch to its next generation, or will the old guard once again stand firm upon the throne?
That’s the question as we ride into the new year with reigning champ Alexandre Pantoja fresh off another sterling title defense to close out 2023. With octagon wins over Brandon Moreno (x3), Kai Kara-France, Brandon Royval (x2), and Alex Perez, the 33-year-old champ has already taken out many of the stalwarts of the UFC’s 125-pound roster. But fresh blood is coming — Amir Albazi, Manel Kape (who Pantoja beat in Kape’s UFC debut), and Muhammad Mokaev represent the new guard banging on the door of title contention.
More than half of our team believes Pantoja will continue to assert his dominance in 2024, but his clock is ticking, and there’s no shortage of hungry names just waiting for their shots.
Women’s Bantamweight
Mayra Bueno Silva (8): Cruz, Heck, Jackman, Lee, Leydon, Marrocco, Martin, Meshew
Julianna Peña (2): Al-Shatti, Burks
Valentina Shevchneko (1): Youngs
First off, props are in order for Mr. Meshew — the man may have had the best picks of this whole shebang last year when he predicted that both women’s featherweight and women’s bantamweight would limp into 2024 without a single UFC beltholder. Not only was he correct, but women’s featherweight basically doesn’t even exist anymore. Bravo.
That leaves a void at the top for us as we kick off the new year, but luckily the 135-pound division is set to get back on track later this month when Raquel Pennington and MMA Fighting’s No. 1 ranked bantamweight Mayra Bueno Silva go to battle for the vacant strap at UFC 297. Eight of the 11 members of our team believe Bueno Silva’s year-long title reign starts on Jan. 20, while Al-Shatti and Burks are still placing their faith in former champ Julianna Peña to reclaim her title once she heals from injury, and Youngs remains holding out hope for a long-awaited Shevchneko return to 135 pounds.
Women’s Flyweight
Alexa Grasso (0): N/A
Valentina Shevchenko (1): Jackman
Erin Blanchfield (8): Al-Shatti, Cruz, Heck, Lee, Leydon, Martin, Meshew, Youngs
Manon Fiorot (1): Marrocco
Zhang Weili (1): Burks
If Alexa Grasso is looking for bulletin board material, she may have found it.
The reigning UFC women’s flyweight champion was the unanimous winner of 2023’s Submission of the Year, but that did little to sway our team over to her side for 2024. Not only did Grasso fail to garner a single vote of support, but the woman who did receive the lion’s share of top ballots was someone who isn’t even booked for a title fight next. That honor fell to 24-year-old contender Erin Blanchfield, who puts her undefeated 6-0 octagon record on the line against Manon Fiorot on March 30 at UFC Atlantic City.
Eight out of our 11 staffers believe the future of the flyweight division arrives in 2024 with Blanchfield’s coronation, while Jackman (Shevchenko), Marrocco (Fiorot), and Burks (Zhang!) threw their own darts at the board to dethrone Mexico’s lone remaining champ.
Strawweight
Zhang Weili (6): Cruz, Heck, Lee, Leydon, Marrocco, Martin
Tatiana Suarez (5): Al-Shatti, Burks, Jackman, Meshew, Youngs
When it comes to the UFC’s lightest-weight division, 2024 is a two-horse race.
Unsurprisingly, our team was split straight down the middle between the class of 115 pounds, two-time champion Zhang Weili, and the long-in-the-making heir apparent Tatiana Suarez. A former Olympic hopeful, Suarez is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC and has been garnering “future champ” buzz since her dominant run through The Ultimate Fighter 23 in 2016. Injuries have been Suarez’s staunchest opponent rather than any foe in the cage, but the still 33-year-old wrestler finally found some consistency in 2023 with a flawless 2-0 campaign. She’s scheduled to face Amanda Lemos on Feb. 17 at UFC 298 in what will surely be her final hurdle before a title shot.
Will 2024 bring a coronation eight years in the making or will Suarez just be another highlight on the Hall of Fame résumé China’s first-ever UFC champion is building?