The Thunder are so much better than they're getting credit for

Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Prince J. Grimes.

I want to use this moment to apologize to the Oklahoma City Thunder, because I was so wrong about them. Let me explain.

Before the season started, we at FTW made win total over/under predictions for every NBA team. I picked the Thunder to go over their line of 44.5 wins — which certainly seems like a good pick today — but what I said afterwards couldn’t begin to describe the reality of how good this team actually is:

“I don’t think OKC wins 50 games, but they’ll be right on that fringe between the playoffs and play-in tournament again.”

I’m eating more and more of those words with each passing game. OKC beat the NBA-leading Boston Celtics Tuesday to improve to 23-9 on the season. That record is good enough for second place in the Western Conference, just a game behind the Minnesota Timberwolves for first place, and a half-game ahead of the reigning champion Denver Nuggets. Yeah, they’re on the fringe alright — the fringe of title contention.

By the way, the Thunder beat both the Wolves and Nuggets last week … by a combined 49 points!

After adding the Celtics to their infinity gauntlet of wins over teams with top-10 title odds, the only teams they haven’t beaten in that field are the Milwaukee Bucks — who they haven’t played yet — and the Philadelphia 76ers. Notice both are in the Eastern Conference.

Shai was LOCKED IN tonight.

36 PTS
6 REB
7 AST
14-22 FGM@okcthunder top Boston at home! pic.twitter.com/zXFZ8YVnvF

— NBA (@NBA) January 3, 2024

At this point, everyone should know the Thunder are good. My colleague Bryan Kalbrosky wrote about how special they are more than a month ago. They’re a legit threat to win the West, and maybe the whole thing. OKC is top-five in the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating, and no team in the Western Conference has a better net rating. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a top-three MVP candidate. Chet Holmgren is the Rookie of the Year favorite. And Jalen Williams isn’t afraid of big moments either, as he showed against Boston. However, it still doesn’t feel like they’re getting credit for being that good.

Despite the evidence, oddsmakers aren’t bought in yet. The Thunder have just the sixth-best odds to win the West at BetMGM, behind teams like the eighth-place Phoenix Suns and 10th-place Los Angeles Lakers, and their title odds are 10th-best. This may have something to do with how young they are and unproven in the postseason, which could prove to be a problem. However, the eye test is saying this is a team that can give anyone trouble, and it’s about time we start treating them like it.

OG Anunoby is fitting in just fine in New York

We got our first look at OG Anunoby in a New York Knicks uniform Monday, and the early returns were good. He scored an efficient 17 points, including 3-of-6 from three, to go with six rebounds and two steals in an impressive win over the Timberwolves. And as Bryan Kalbrosky wrote, his true impact went beyond the box score.

Anunoby’s switch-ability on defense makes him a great fit with the Knicks:

“During his first game in New York, for example, Anunoby exemplified that perfectly. The wing defended Anthony Edwards for 32.9 partial possessions and switched on to Karl-Anthony Towns for 10.5 partial possessions.

Edwards scored 8 points when he was defended by Anunoby on Monday. For comparison, Edwards scored 9 points on 20.4 partial possessions guarded by Josh Hart and 11 points on 7.6 partial possessions defended by Julius Randle.

Anunoby held Edwards to 24.3 points per 100 possessions during this game, which is significantly better than what the Minnesota star is averaging (36.9) this season. It was hard to ignore his defensive presence whenever he was on the court.”

We’ll get our second look at the new-look Knicks tonight against the Chicago Bulls. For a team with the sixth-best odds to win the East, this is game New York should have no problem winning. They’re favored by 8.5 points, and Anunoby is a big reason they’ll probably cover that number.

One to Watch

(All odds via BetMGM)

Oklahoma City Thunder (-115) at Atlanta Hawks (-1.5; -105), 7:40 p.m. ET

I don’t care that the Thunder just played an intense game last night. If they’re the team I just spent all newsletter propping them up to be, they win and cover in this game. Though the Hawks are on two days rest, they’re a mess. They were on a four-game losing skid before beating the Washington Wizards to improve to 4-10 overall in December. They can’t compete with OKC.

Shootaround

— Y’all, Ja Morant dunked on Victor Wembanyama

— Zach Edey is a projected lottery pick in ESPN’s latest big board update

— The Pop-Tart Bowl mascot was reportedly played by a beloved former NBA mascot

— Mics caught Will Hardy demanding Jordan Clarkson complete his triple-double

That’s it from me y’all. Check back Friday for more Layup Lines.