NFL Week 18 Expert Predictions and Best Bets Against the Spread
Playoff spots are on the line, and so is $10,000 for those playing SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10.
This is it! Final week of the NFL regular season. SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest, in which you have a chance to win $10,000, will continue throughout the year. But this is your last chance until next season to pick 10 NFL games against the spread.
Week 18 is the perfect time to bring home the prize.
How does it work? All you have to do is pick 10 games against the spread correctly and you can win up to $10,000. The more picks you get right, the more free bets you earn. And the best part? You’re not competing against anyone and there’s no fee to enter.
The lines for the contest were set early in the week, so keep your eyes peeled for news that can give you an advantage.
Want another advantage?
We have gathered SI’s experts to give their picks, so you can make the most informed decisions and be well on your way to that $10,000 payout.
Below are our best bets and picks for Week 18 of the NFL season.
Bill Enright (11-6): Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5
With a victory over their NFC South rivals, the Buccaneers would secure their third straight division title and punch their ticket to the postseason. But if they lose, they don’t make the playoffs. Pressure is on for Tampa Bay and the Carolina Panthers have been the league’s worst team this year for a reason…they stink! Bank on the Bucs to make you some bucks.
Craig Ellenport (11-6): New Orleans Saints -3.5
It’s hard to believe the Atlanta Falcons still have a chance to win the NFC South. They’re only in that position because they beat the Saints at home in Week 12. But Atlanta needed a 92-yard pick-six in that game and hung on because New Orleans had to settle for five Blake Grupe field goals. The Falcons are much worse on the road (they lost by 20 last week in Chicago). Atlanta’s offense struggles on the road and the Saints’ defense has been tough at home. That’s a winning combination for New Orleans.
Jen Piacenti (9-8): New York Giants +5.5
This is my roundabout way of picking the Dallas Cowboys, without picking the Cowboys. What do I mean? If Dallas has a big enough lead on Sunday vs. the Washington Commanders, then Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has already said he will pull his starters. I’ll assume that’s the case, and take the 5.5 points with the Giants. Since these contest lines were published, it has moved to just 4.5, so I like the value. The Eagles defense has been incredibly generous to opposing passers this season, allowing the second-most completions (400), the fifth-most passing yards (4,240), and the second-most passing touchdowns (34) to opposing quarterbacks. The only team that has been arguably more generous than the Eagles is the Commanders -- who are playing the Cowboys (you see where I am going with this). Tyrod Taylor just threw for 319 yards vs. the Rams last weekend, and he should find success vs. Philadelphia -- which may not even be playing its starters for the entire game.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Michael Fabiano (9-8): Dallas Cowboys -12.5
The Cowboys are 3-5 ATS on the road this season, and they’re 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games in Washington. Not great! But this is my beloveds playing for the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and it makes more sense for the Commanders to lose this game and lock up the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. That guarantees them getting either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Dallas has covered three times in four games when they’ve been favored by double digits in 2023, and there is no more meaningful game on the slate (at least for the Cowboys and this Dallas homer).
Kyle Wood (8-8): Cowboys -12.5
Dallas is playing for the division title Sunday against Washington. That means more for the Cowboys than it might for some teams given their 8–0 mark at AT&T Stadium, where they routinely blew out opponents, and a 3–5 road record. Hosting a playoff game in Round 1 rather than traveling to Tampa, New Orleans or Atlanta makes all the difference as this team vies for its first NFC Championship game appearance since 1996. The Cowboys are also accustomed to covering large spreads, like on Thanksgiving when they beat the Sam Howell-led Commanders 45–10, covering the 13-point spread more than two times over.
Matt Verderame (8-8): Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
The Chiefs are resting all their starters, but the Chargers are missing almost every recognizable face on their roster, including Justin Herbert. With an interim coach and no home-field advantage, what is Los Angeles’ edge in this one? Give me a Kansas City team that is looking to get sharp before the playoffs
Gilberto Manzano (8-9): Seattle Seahawks -2.5
Welp, I have an opportunity to end the season with a respectable .500 record, but here I am, betting on one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season. The Seahawks will have a tough challenge against a pesky Cardinals team that beat the Eagles last week and the Cowboys and Steelers earlier in the 2023 season. But the Seahawks are desperate and talented, and need a win to have a chance to make the playoffs. They won’t cruise in Arizona, but they’ll put it all together to give themselves one more chance in this season filled with ups and downs.
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