After Firing Arthur Smith, Falcons Have No Choice But to Take a Big Swing

Arthur Smith’s tenure as Atlanta Falcons coach has ended, the team announced late Sunday night. Needing to finish the season with sound optics, the team was drubbed by the Chicago Bears and then the division-rival New Orleans Saints in back-to-back weeks.

The postgame coach’s handshake following the Saints game devolved into an airing of grievances, with Smith chastising New Orleans coach Dennis Allen for a fake kneeldown score at the end of the game (a player audible for which Allen would later apologize). While Smith’s anger was justified, his temperament was again the grist for social media fodder. Smith has had moments of brilliance in Atlanta, but struggled to find both the public command and consistent success owner Arthur Blank had envisioned when he signed Smith to a six-year contract in 2021. Whether Blank and general manager Terry Fontenot supplied him with the proper tools to do so, namely a quarterback, is up for debate.

But the timing and reasons behind Smith’s ouster should provide some context clues for those wondering what the Falcons might do next. Just weeks ago, it seemed Blank was content with allowing his long-term rebuilding strategy, which included waiting out the final year of the Matt Ryan era and the sustaining of Ryan’s debilitating, $40 million-plus dead-cap hit, to run its course. Now, the owner, who will be 82 early in the 2024 season, seems to be eying a quicker solution to end the team’s streak of seasons with a losing record, which stands at six.

Could a big swing soon follow?

The 2024 coaching carousel is a highly unusual one. Outside of Ben Johnson (Lions), Frank Smith (Dolphins), Dave Canales (Buccaneers) and Brian Callahan (Bengals), the offensive coordinator pipeline is light. After years of overhiring, the stockpile of creative play-callers needs time to replenish.

Two of the top defensive coordinator candidates are Dan Quinn (Cowboys) and Raheem Morris (Rams), a former Falcons head coach and Falcons interim coach, respectively.

So, for many teams, and the Falcons in particular, it seemed more sensible to hold onto their coach and wait out the haze. That is, unless they were interested in getting involved with one of the major players available this year.

The list of big-timers includes names such as Jim Harbaugh and Bill Belichick. Harbaugh reached three conference title games and a Super Bowl during his tenure as coach of the San Francisco 49ers, and sparked a program revival at Michigan. Belichick infamously led the Patriots to the largest Super Bowl comeback in history … against Blank’s Falcons in the 2016 season.

Certainly Blank could be making a run at someone like Johnson, who is widely expected to be the most sought-after first-time head coaching candidate in the cycle, and, thus, could command a steeper price tag and a longer-term deal, much in the way DeMeco Ryans did a year ago. But the timing of the Smith firing would suggest he wants immediate results and would also like to whittle down his potential risk.

The fact that Belichick is going to be 72 next year, for example, may not scare off Blank like it would some other teams, when the goal is to win a Super Bowl immediately. At least so goes the chatter among industry types at the moment.

This could be a transformational season for the Falcons, a team that was burned by its conservative approach to the quarterback market as it waited out the financial repercussions of Matt Ryan’s decline. While ultimately passing on Deshaun Watson appears to have been a wise choice, Atlanta spent three straight top-10 picks on offensive skill-position players and whiffed on the opportunity to sign several capable veteran QBs who are currently leading playoff teams and could have been had for next to nothing.

The arrival of a “savior” type coach at a sizable paygrade could coincide with the arrival of a quarterback of a similarly hefty reputation.

The hiring cycle will be a significant one for Blank and team CEO Rich McKay. Both have had a relatively solid track record when it comes to selecting head coaches, with Smith being just the Falcons’ third since 2008 (not counting Morris, who was an interim when Quinn was fired). Both Mike Smith (66–46, one conference title game appearance, four total playoff appearances) and Quinn (43–42, one Super Bowl appearance and two total playoff appearances) finished their tenures with winning records.

However, this may be the first time since the ill-fated Bobby Petrino hire that the club shocks the football world. After firing Smith, Blank has few other options but to go big.