Where Mike Vrabel Could Land His Next Head Coaching Job
You delivered with more than 150 questions on X, formerly known as Twitter. In an effort to get to more of them, we went lightning-round at the bottom of this week’s mailbag. Here’s what we’ve got …
From Amy (@Amy11074): Will Vrabel get another HC job? And what were the Titans thinking?
Amy, yes. One million percent yes. I’d put Mike Vrabel, as far as desirability, up there with Jim Harbaugh and Bill Belichick—the difference being that the latter two are in their 60s and 70s, while the former Titans coach is still in his 40s.
I do think Vrabel would be wise to (and I think he will) prioritize structure wherever he goes next, after what he just went through. Every indication I’ve gotten is that he really likes, and is good at, the team-building part of the job, and so Tennessee Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk changing the rules of engagement is a big part of why this all came to a head.
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For what it’s worth, I’d also say that the dismissal of then interim GM Ryan Cowden, who was Robinson’s No. 2, was an early sign that I didn’t see at the time that we would eventually get to where we are now. Cowden, now working for New York Giants GM Joe Schoen (they’d worked together in Carolina), was eye-to-eye with Vrabel on a lot of things, to the point where I think he could wind up being the GM in Vrabel’s next landing spot.
As for the second question, I covered a lot of that Tuesday. I just think Strunk kept moving the goalposts on what she was looking for, and eventually got herself to a place where a top-quarter-of-the-league football coach no longer fit into her long-term vision. The team’s 2023 record, injury issues over the last three years and staff turnover simply gave her the opening to do it.
We’ll see how that works out for her.
From Alex Merida (@AlexMerida5): If Belichick stays on as coach, but gives up GM duties … What GM is strong enough to stand up to him to make choices when Bill will say no at times. And will our old OC be coming back?
Alex, I’d say the ship has sailed on this one, but I think what you absolutely can’t have, in any circumstance, is a situation where someone in one of those jobs is constantly overruling the other. To find the right person to work with Bill Belichick—a coach who isn’t going to go through some sort of personality change at 72 years old and after a half century in the NFL—you can’t guess on how it’s going to go. So I think you’d have to hire someone he has a background with.
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That, to me, means digging into his past, and through a list of guys like former Kansas City Chiefs GM Scott Pioli, former Titans GM Jon Robinson, former Las Vegas Raiders GM Dave Ziegler and former Detroit Lions GM Bob Quinn. Those guys, I think, would have the confidence to be their own men, while forging a partnership with Belichick that would allow for most decisions to be made by consensus. A GM should never be looking to hand his coach players he doesn’t want.
Which, to me, is the key to the whole thing. It’s not about someone telling the other person how it’s gonna be. It’s about getting to a place where both people are looking for a lot of the same things in players, and where the disagreements are worked through together. I think Belichick can find that place, like Andy Reid did with his GMs after leaving the Philadelphia Eagles. I just don’t think it’ll be in New England.
From Jeff Murray (@jeffmurr): Who do you think will be the next Panthers GM and HC?
Jeff, this is one of the teams that I think will veer from the traditional structure, to something a little more like what you might see in another sport—which is part of why you bring in a consulting group like Sportsology. That company’s executive director, Mike Forde, is a name to know, as he will have some influence on where the Carolina Panthers’ search goes. Forde is a former top executive for the Chelsea FC of the Premier League.
So I think there’s a decent chance, as we said Tuesday, they hire someone from the operations side (cap/analytics) of a team to be their next GM, and then pair that person with incumbent assistant GM Dan Morgan If you look at Carolina’s interview list, you’ll see more folks from operations than scouting on it. On the coaching side, I do think things are a little less predictable, but one thing I was told by a couple of people is that David Tepper will be looking to check, say, 10 boxes rather than just one (offensive/quarterback) this time around.
My concern here with all this would be whether the Panthers are worried about the right things. To kick off its interview process, Carolina reached out to candidates, through different channels, to see whether they’d accept interviews before officially putting in slips for them with the league. That, presumably, was done out of fear of being turned down—that rejection would get out, which would bolster perception that coach and GM candidates are leery of working for Tepper (which is just the honest truth right now).
So their list, essentially, includes people who’ve already agreed to interview, rather than the full list that they’re looking at. Which, to me, reeks of an organization being concerned with the wrong stuff—and, ironically enough, is a reason why a candidate would be cautious about pursuing either of those jobs.
I do think Tepper can be a really great owner. He’s incredibly smart. But it feels like he’s become too wrapped up in a lot of things that new owners are often concerned with, from image and optics to being seen as forward-thinking to constantly changing his mind.
There aren’t great signs yet that’s changed in 2024. But there’s still time to fix that.
From JJ (@Flint521466): Who’s in higher demand? Jim Harbaugh or Mike Vrabel?
JJ, without saying who’d be a better pick, I think Vrabel will be, and the reason why is that you have to check fewer boxes to go get him. He’s younger and would probably require a little less in terms of infrastructure—a guy in his 40s might be more willing to conduct a bigger rebuild or go find his own quarterback.
But that’s just a guess. I think those two are easily the two best candidates out there, at least until Belichick becomes available.
From Thomas A. Nguyen (@quality_nguyen): Next team for Vrabel? Does he take Arthur Smith with him?
Thomas, the easy answer would be New England. The question there is how willing Robert Kraft is to reset what’s been a long-held plan for Jerod Mayo to ascend into that role.
Kraft convinced Mayo to turn down a head coach interview last year in Carolina, which is really significant, because simply meeting with Tepper and doing well there could’ve helped to ignite his candidacy for jobs this year. And while promises can’t officially be made in such negotiations, Kraft paid Mayo well to stay. He also made sure Mayo’s contract dovetailed with Belichick’s (both end after 2024), so Mayo could have the flexibility to leave if, for some reason, the Patriots job wasn’t exactly what he wanted in ’25.
That said, no one in that organization saw 2023 coming the way it did. So does that cause Kraft to rethink his plans and really put Mayo in a bind? I think he probably sticks with Mayo, but the sudden availability of Vrabel, who makes sense on so many levels, could lead to some further contemplation, especially since hiring Vrabel may necessitate less reconfiguring of how things have been set up for a quarter century under Belichick.
And if it’s not the Washington Commanders? I’d bet the Panthers would at least take a swing, though Vrabel might be leery of the owner after what he just went through with his old boss. The Atlanta Falcons (where Vrabel’s son plays) and the Los Angeles Chargers might make more sense.
George Walker IV/The Tennessean/USA Today Network
As for Smith, I think it’s definitely possible. But the idea of Bill O’Brien (who Vrabel is close with) or Josh McDaniels shouldn’t be discounted, nor should anyone who has a background with Andy Reid or Kyle Shanahan. (Matt Nagy was high on his list in 2018 before Nagy got the Bears job, and Matt LaFleur wound up being the hire.)
From Rick (@topgun2448): Love listening to u on The Herd! Is there a prospect u think my Bengals should seriously consider at #18 in the next draft?
Rick, thanks for listening, and watching. So the Cincinnati Bengals’ needs depend on some injuries (D.J. Reader’s health) and how things go in free agency (you’d assume Jonah Williams is gone, and Tee Higgins will be tough to keep, too). The Bengals would look at those positions, receiver or tackle, on each side of the ball, if they don’t have those guys in 2024.
So I think the idea of adding a tackle or offensive skill player makes sense. Maybe someone like Georgia’s Amarius Mims is sitting there for you at No. 18. If Higgins is gone, there’s the chance one of the three behind Marvin Harrison Jr. (Washington’s Rome Odunze, Florida State’s Keon Coleman or LSU’s Malik Nabers) slides into the middle of the first round. I can’t imagine Georgia tight Brock Bowers will be there, but he’d be perfect.
The cool thing about all this for the Bengals is I don’t think any of these positions are a critical need—to the point where you’d have to take care of it, come hell or high water, in the first round—which gives Cincinnati flexibility to let the draft come to them.
From Brian (@fhbrian): Jim Schwartz time recuperating in TEN, then working for the league out of Titans offices, then a defensive assistant...is familiar a vibe the Titans want or is something new?
Brian, I … don’t mind the idea of this. Or even Smith. Both Jim Schwartz and Arthur Smith have incredible institutional knowledge on that place, as well as the dynamic with the Adams family running the team from Houston. Both are excellent coaches. Schwartz is now a little older, at 57, but he’s got great experience from Philly and now the Cleveland Browns. And he worked under Vrabel in 2022 and ’23. I still think Smith has the potential to be a top-shelf head coach in time, and with a quarterback.
They wouldn’t be win-the-press-conference hires. But I do think they’d make some sense.
From Josh (@jlg123yea): Not a question, but a comment. There are obvious stories for the Rams vs. Lions. But an underrated one is Les Snead vs. BH.
Josh, former Auburn TE Les Snead vs. Former North Carolina A&T DL Brad Holmes on the old school boards would be quite the matchup. I heard Snead was pretty solid blocking on the edge, but a source told me that Holmes’s get-off might be the real difference in the matchup. Maybe someone can get them out there on the Ford Field turf Sunday during warmups to settle it.
From Mike O’Donnell (@modonnell_10): Do you think Belichick is the coach of the Patriots next year?
Mike, I do not. I’m also not sure what’s taking days to settle this, though it’s certainly possible after their initial meeting Monday they decided to give each other a few days to decompress before reconvening.
From Nick Palazzolo (@NickPalazzolo5): Is a Jon Gruden return to the NFL imminent? Seems to be enough interest, but can he actually do it with his lawsuit?
Nick, I think Jon Gruden would like to coach again, and I don’t think the lawsuit would logistically prevent him from doing it. Now, whether owners would decide, individually or collectively, not to hire him due to the lawsuit, I don’t know.
From DM(V) Fan (@53_Guard): WASHINGTON GM AND HC?
DM(V) Fan, I might’ve given you Adam Peters for president of football operations and Ben Johnson for coach a couple of days ago. Now I wonder whether Vrabel’s availability could affect things here; Peters was a young scout in New England, for what it’s worth, while Vrabel was a player there.
From Andrew Livingston (@AndrewLiv): Would you consider Adam Peters the front runner for the WSH President job? Makes more sense they kept Mayhew if that is the target.
Andrew, I like Peters or Chiefs assistant GM Mike Borgonzi for the job. And yes it’d seem that Peters getting the job would give Martin Mayhew a shot to stay in the GM role, which would change a bit in the new structure (though he didn’t have final say there, either).
From Maino (@Maino03): Most realistic gm and hc for raiders and why?
Maino, a little hunch here: Vrabel and Cowden. I think the Raiders take a swing at Harbaugh. And I think if they can’t land a big fish like Vrabel, Harbaugh or Belichick, then they probably stick with Antonio Pierce.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
From Evan Tarracciano (@Roto_Wizard): Don’t be surprised if the New York Giants draft [blank] 6th overall this year.
Evan, an edge rusher, probably either Dallas Turner (Alabama) or Jared Verse (Florida State). Or, of course, a quarterback.
From RYAN????????????| Bazooka (@ItsYeyo95): Are the Raiders interested with Ed Dodds purely to pair with Jim Harbaugh?
No, Ryan, they loved Ed Dodds two years ago when they interviewed him for their GM job, and so he’s in a strong position going into his interview there, regardless of what happens with the coach. But that he has the connection to Harbaugh doesn’t hurt.
From Gregory Charles (@Gfein40): Patriots look at Jim harbaugh to replace Bill?
Gregory, I just don’t think it’s the right fit for Harbaugh or the team right now. The Patriots might be two offseasons away from being a real contender. I think Harbaugh will have better options.
From Carter (@Carter448148557): Is it possible that one of the top QBs fall in the draft. Like Williams, Maye, and Daniels.
Carter, I think those three go in the top 10—probably Caleb Williams, then Drake Maye, then Jayden Daniels—and could all wind up in the top five. I think they comprise, at this early juncture, the first tier of quarterbacks. I’d say the next tier is made up, in some order, of Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
Form Josh Gayhart (@Ryan22010): Any news on Falcons? Hearing who they are leaning Head coach wise? Possibly draft trade up?
Josh, impossible to say on a trade-up when we don’t know who the coach is—but there’ll certainly be pressure to go find a quarterback, and that’s one way to do it. As for coach, I’ll say that, because the roster is relatively close, and because it’s on the Eastern seaboard, that’s where Belichick winds up landing.
From Michael Phillips (@mikephillipsOG): From your sources and knowledge did Jacksonville get rid of the right people, or is there still wholesale issues with either the OC, GM, any individual players that needs to be changed by next season?
Thanks for the question, Michael. It’s really hard to say. There were fingers pointed at OC Press Taylor for the offense and Trevor Lawrence’s development stagnating. Taylor made it. Similar questions were asked about defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. His unit finished in the bottom half of the league in total defense and scoring defense. He didn’t make it.
Some of the bigger-picture questions going into this week were asking whether the front office would push change on Doug Pederson. Whether that happened, change did come. But Pederson’s right-hand man, Taylor, did survive.
Which, to me, means there’ll be plenty of pressure on the staff to deliver in 2024.
From OneKumar (@OneKumar_NFL): How do you feel about the Michigan team? Not the scandal but the players and the execution.
OneKumar, great schemes, great team, they play together, and are great at the most important parts of football—blocking and tackling, and generally being in the right places. It’s the advantage of being as veteran a group as they were.
From Matt Cassell (@MattCassell14): The only question that matters: How’d you like that game [Monday] night? @richeisen
I didn’t enjoy it that much, Matt.