NFL DFS Picks for Wild-Card Weekend

Quarterbacks

Spend UpJosh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen has been the best DFS quarterback this season, leading the league with 44 touchdowns. Allen scored 15 of those touchdowns with his legs. With the weather in Buffalo looking not very friendly for the passing game on Sunday, you should still expect Allen to have solid play in his home stadium. The Steelers will play without T.J. Watt, which can only help the Bills this weekend.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

The passing matchup is excellent for Hurts, as the Buccaneers allowed the fifth-most passing yards (2,000) across the last eight games of the regular season. They also tied for allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks during the regular season (6). We know Hurts is likely to rob a goal-line carry from D’Andre Swift via a “tush push,” and that makes Hurts worth the salary on Monday night.

Mid-TierPatrick Mahomes, Kansas

O.K., I know Mahomes has disappointed in the second half of the season, but how can you pass up this mid-tier salary for the reigning MVP? Kansas City will have a significant advantage due to the conditions at Arrowhead. It’s expected to be windy with wind chills around minus-2, and that likely won’t be ideal for the team visiting from South Beach without defensive end Bradley Chubb and linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker. Miami allowed the ninth-most DFS points to quarterbacks across the last eight weeks of the season, and this looks like an excellent spot to grab value from the Chiefs.

BargainMatthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

By now, I am sure you’ve heard all the storylines … Revenge game narrative … blah, blah, blah -- but this is what you really need to know: The Lions allowed the most DFS points per game to opposing quarterbacks across the last eight games of the season. During that same period, Stafford had 16 passing touchdowns and a passer rating of 104.5. With Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams as top receiving options, the Rams have the chance to pull off an upset.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

This game has the highest total of the week at SI Sportsbook for a reason. I mentioned above how generous the Lions have been to opposing passers, but the Rams aren’t too far behind. The Rams allowed the second-most passing yards across the season's last eight games and the fourth-most passing touchdowns. In that same period, Goff passed for 18 scores. Goff is notoriously better at home, with 19 passing touchdowns and a 107.9 passer rating in the dome compared to 11 passing touchdowns and an 89.4 passer rating on the road. I expect a lot of lineups to have Lions and Rams this weekend.

Running Backs

Spend UpRachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you’re including the Monday slate in your lineup, White should be worth the spend. The Eagles have allowed the most DFS points to opposing runners of those teams playing in super wild-card weekend across the season's final eight games. That includes seven touchdowns (five rushing and two receiving) across the last four games. White averaged 16 attempts per game this season (tied for seventh) and more than four targets per game (12th).

View the original article to see embedded media.

Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook

Bet $5 on DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states

View the original article to see embedded media.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

I don’t see any running backs I particularly want to spend up for this weekend, but with the weather conditions expected at Arrowhead, perhaps Achane is the best play. He’s explosive and led the NFL this season with the most rushes of 40-plus yards (5). If Raheem Mostert is active, he is also worth the spend. No player has more rushing touchdowns this season than Mostert (18), who is also averaging an impressive 4.84 yards per carry.

Mid-TierAaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

The Cowboys have struggled vs. the run lately, allowing an average of 120 rushing yards per game across the final four of the season. Jones is also an able pass-catching option for Love. The Cowboys allowed three receiving touchdowns in addition to three rushing touchdowns to opposing runners in the season's final four games. Jones had 20-plus attempts and 100-plus yards in each of the final three games of the regular season.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

On the other side of this game, we have Pollard, who looked good vs. a weaker run defense last week. Throughout the regular season, the Packers allowed the most DFS points to runners of the remaining playoff teams.

BargainNajee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris has gone beast mode lately, and we should expect more of the same on Sunday in a game that’s expected to have snow and high winds. Harris averaged 104 rushing yards per game across the last three games of the season and had four rushing touchdowns in that span.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers

Warren’s salary isn’t much less than Harris’s, but he could still be worth a play. He’s broken the same amount of tackles this season as Harris, and both players should be heavily involved in the game plan. Warren also has the upside of being the primary receiving back and could tally a few extra catches for you.

Wide Receivers

Spend UpCeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

This is not matchup-based; it’s just talent-based. No receiver was targeted more (181) and caught more passes (135) than Lamb this year. Lamb averaged 103 yards per game during the regular season and owned a 30% target share for the Cowboys. He’s also scored a touchdown in nine consecutive games.

Amon-Ra St Brown, Lions

As mentioned above, the Rams have been incredibly generous to opposing passers and receivers. Meanwhile, St. Brown is averaging 95 receiving yards per game this season. His 165 targets rank fifth in the NFL and his 119 catches are second only to Lamb. He owns a 33.4% share of the air yards for the Lions this season, and with Sam LaPorta banged up or out for this game, St. Brown will easily be the focal point for Goff.

Puka Nacua, Rams

The rookie sensation finished fourth in the NFL with 1,486 receiving yards and the Lions allowed the third-most DFS points to receivers across the last eight games of the season.

Mid-TierMike Evans, Buccaneers

Evans is a stud, and there’s no doubt he will connect with Mayfield vs. an Eagles secondary that allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and 13 touchdowns to wideouts across the last eight games of the season. Evans’s 13 touchdowns are tied with Tyreek Hill for the most at the position this year. He also logged 1,255 receiving yards for his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season.

Rashee Rice, Chiefs

Rice came on strong at the end of the regular season, averaging more than nine targets and 86 receiving yards per game since Week 12.

BargainChris Godwin, Buccaneers

Evans is still the top dog but Godwin saw his target share increase dramatically across the final five games of the season. Since Week 14, Godwin has averaged nine targets and 84 receiving yards per game. The Eagles defense is an excellent matchup for the talented veteran receiver.

Brandin Cooks, Cowboys

Cooks was hot for the second half of the season and was hot when at home all season. The veteran wideout has scored a touchdown in five of seven home games this season, and he’s averaging 66 receiving yards per game when at home as opposed to only 21.5 yards per game when away.

Jayden Reed, Packers

The matchup with the Cowboys isn’t ideal, but with Love targeting so many different receivers each week, Reed may benefit from slightly softer coverage. Reed leads all Packers with 10 total touchdowns (eight receiving, two rushing). In the final two games of the regular season, Reed averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game despite making an early exit due to injury in Week 17.

Tight Ends

Spend UpTravis Kelce, Chiefs

Eventually, Kelce has to shake it off, and this week looks like a good opportunity, as the Dolphins allowed the fourth-most DFS points to tight ends this season. He’s had an extra week of rest and is likely also becoming a contrarian play.

David Njoku, Browns

Njoku has been on fire… maybe that’s the wrong way to put it…. Njoku has been in the zone since Week 14. The tight end has seen an average of nearly 10 targets and 93 receiving yards in the four games between Weeks 14-17 with Flacco at QB. He should be well-rested after not playing in Week 18 and this week he faces off vs. the Texans, who have allowed the sixth-most DFS points to tight ends this year. Njoku’s six receiving touchdowns are the most on the Browns, and four came while playing with Flacco.

Mid-TierDalton Kincaid, Bills

Kincaid has seen 15 targets across the past two games, tied with Stefon Diggs for the team lead, but Kincaid leads the team with 171 receiving yards. Look for Allen to continue to find his sure-handed tight end vs. the Steelers, who allowed an average of five catches per game and 50 receiving yards per game to the position during the regular season.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

The matchup is decent vs. the Packers, and Dak Prescott should continue to target his trusty tight end, whose 71 receptions and 761 receiving yards are second only to Lamb this season for the Cowboys.

BargainCade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The matchup is nice for Otton vs. the Eagles, who are allowing an average of seven catches per game and a 75% catch rate to the position.