NFC Divisional Round Betting Preview: Packers vs. 49ers
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers pulled off a shocking upset as heavy road underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday and six days later they’ll attempt to do the same against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Packers and 49ers are set to face off in the playoffs for the 10th time, a new NFL record. San Francisco has won the last four postseason meetings, most recently a 13–10 triumph in 2022 in what was Aaron Rodgers’s final playoff game in Green Bay.
The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites at Levi’s Stadium against the Packers. The over/under is set at 50.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, which is easily the highest total of any divisional round matchup.
San Francisco (12–5) earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC as one of the league’s most dominant teams on both sides of the ball. Green Bay (9–8) won its final three games to secure the final wild card spot in the NFC before Love announced his arrival in a 48–32 shellacking of the Cowboys in the wild-card round.
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Packers vs. 49ers Odds and Game Info
Moneyline: Packers (+370) | 49ers (-500)
Spread: GB +9.5 (-110) | SF -9.5 (-110)
Total: 50.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Saturday, Jan. 20, 8:15 p.m. ET | FOX
Green Bay and San Francisco Key Stats and Fun Facts:
- The 49ers finished fourth in passing yards (257.9), third in rushing yards (140.5) and second in total yards (398.4) per game.
- The over was 10–7 in the regular season for both Green Bay and San Francisco.
- Love (32) had the second-most passing touchdowns this season behind only Dak Prescott (36) and ahead of Brock Purdy (31).
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports
Best Bet: 49ers -9.5 (-110)
Love helped the Packers build a three-score lead in the first half against Dallas that proved insurmountable as Joe Barry’s much-maligned defense held its own and the offense kept scoring in the second half.
Green Bay struck first on an Aaron Jones touchdown midway through the first quarter and the veteran back found the end zone once again to start the second. The gut punch came late in the first half with the Cowboys trailing 20–0 when Dak Prescott threw a pick-six that Darnell Savage returned 64 yards to extend the margin to 27 points.
Sunday's game against Dallas marked the sixth time Love has thrown for three touchdowns and zero interceptions and it was also Jones’s fourth straight game with over 100 rushing yards. Jones didn’t score in the previous three games but he made up for it with three touchdowns against the Cowboys, all from inside the 10. He’s currently questionable due to knee and finger injuries.
The upset was particularly shocking because of the disparity between how the two teams performed at home and on the road. Dallas was 8–0 at home heading into the playoffs while the Packers were 4–5 in away games.
The 49ers began the year 5–1 at home before they dropped their last two in Santa Clara to the Ravens in Week 16 and Rams in Week 18. The 33–19 loss to Baltimore was much more concerning than the 21–20 loss at the hands of the Rams considering Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and several other starters rested in the finale with the No. 1 seed already secured.
San Francisco went on a bit of a slide in October when it lost three straight games but after a Week 9 bye the team won seven of eight by 12-plus points. The combination of Purdy’s efficiency, McCaffrey’s singular greatness and the depth of the pass-catching corps of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle proved to be too much for opponents week after week. Factor in the play of the defense, which is anchored by Nick Bosa, and it’s easy to see why the 49ers are the Super Bowl favorites.
Though Green Bay gave up over 400 passing yards to Prescott last week, many of those came in garbage time. The Packers were a top-10 defense against the pass in the regular season and a bottom-10 unit against the run. McCaffrey, who led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards, is poised to make an impact in a plus matchup while the sheer depth of weapons at Purdy’s disposal should allow him to still have success against the secondary.
The 49ers have been favored by seven-plus points 10 times this season and they’re 5–5 against the spread in that scenario. Green Bay, on the other hand, has pulled off an upset in both instances it was installed as an underdog of at least a touchdown. However, precedent will prevail in this playoff series.
San Francisco has had a year to stew over its NFC championship loss and its offense will be able to score at will. Even if Love does find success against this defense, the 49ers have what it takes to pull away and cover the number en route to their third consecutive conference title game appearance.
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