NBA Odds Best Bets and Bold Predictions: Pacers vs. Kings
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The Indiana Pacers’ high-flying offense could have reinforcements on the way if star guard Tyrese Haliburton returns Thursday night to take on his former team, the Sacramento Kings.
Haliburton (hamstring) hasn’t played since Jan. 8 and the Pacers are 2–2 without the NBA’s assist leader during that stretch and 3–3 on the year. Teetering on the edge of a top-six seed in the East, Indiana (23–17) acquired Pascal Siakam from the Raptors on Wednesday in a three-team trade, but the All-Star forward is not expected to make his debut with his new team just yet.
The Kings are back at the Golden 1 Center for the first time in 11 days following a five-game road trip and it’s been over a week since they last lit the beam. Sacramento (23–17) lost its last three games to tie its longest skid of the season and currently occupies sixth place in the West.
The Pacers’ lengthy injury report includes Bennedict Mathurin (ankle), Aaron Nesmith (shins) and Obi Toppin (calf) in addition to Haliburton, all of whom are questionable, while the Kings have a clean bill of health as they head back home.
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings Odds
Spread: Pacers +7.5 (-110) | Kings -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: IND (+240) | SAC (-333)
Total: 247.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Thursday, Jan. 18 | 10 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Pacers +7.5 (-110)
Bold Prediction: Pacers and Kings combine to score at least 255 points
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Indiana comfortably leads the NBA in scoring (125.6 ppg) and, unsurprisingly, the offense has struggled without its orchestrator. With Halliburton out, the Pacers put up paltry performances in a 132–105 loss to the Utah Jazz on Monday and in a 117–109 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. No Indiana player scored 20 points in either contest and the team’s three-point shooting numbers dipped without Haliburton creating.
However, Haliburton’s return is not the cure-all for one of the league’s worst defenses. The Pacers allow the second-most points per game in the league (123.5) and thus rank outside of the top 10 in net rating in spite of their vaunted offense. Perhaps Siakam can assist with those issues, but he won’t be on the court to help against the Kings, the eighth-highest scoring team in the Association (118.2 ppg).
It was Sacramento that led the league in scoring a season ago behind the play of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis — who was acquired in the Haliburton deal — and both players have taken their play up another level this season. Fox improved his outside shot (39.6% from beyond the arc) and is firmly among the league’s top 10 scorers (28 ppg) while Sabonis continues to wow with his efficiency as he leads the league in rebounds (12.7) and ranks seventh in assists (7.9).
Despite back-to-back 30-point outings from Fox and two consecutive triple-doubles by Sabonis, the Kings still lost to the Phoenix Suns 119–117 on Tuesday and fell to the Milwaukee Bucks 143–142 in overtime Sunday. Mike Brown’s team is no world beater on defense — Sacramento ranks roughly middle of the pack, but that’s still worlds ahead of Indiana. Both teams like to push the ball, too, as the Pacers fittingly rank second in pace while the Kings are 11th.
If it feels like this over/under is high, consider the fact that 264 total points were scored in an Indiana win over the Boston Celtics less than two weeks ago and Sacramento and Milwaukee combined for a whopping 285 in that overtime thriller over the weekend.
There should be no shortage of offense Thursday at the Golden 1 Center as long as Haliburton takes the floor, and if he does, take the Pacers to cover. They’re 13–10 against the spread as an underdog while the Kings are just 14–15 as a favorite. Sacramento’s 13–7 straight up record at home is respectable but its 9–11 mark against the spread in that scenario shows that Indiana, which is 10–8 against the spread on the road, can keep things close.
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