2024 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview: A Major Test at Torrey Pines
A 200–1 winner takes home the first signature event of the season at Kapalua. Then we witness a 400–1 winner in a three-man playoff win at Waialae. On Sunday an amateur won on the PGA Tour for the first time in 33 years! His opening odds last week were in the 300–1 range. If this start is any foreshadowing to what will happen this year on the PGA Tour , then buckle up because betting on golf is not for the faint of heart.
Torrey Pines is our annual venue for the Farmers Insurance Open, with 36 holes set upon cliffs overlooking the Pacific coastline. The test in front of this field couldn’t be more different than what just took place in Palm Desert. The North and South Course await 156 of the PGA Tour’s finest all looking for a piece of the $9 million purse. The first two rounds will have the men play each course once. The top 65 and ties earn the honor of playing the South Course for Rounds 3 and 4.
The South Course has hosted two U.S. Opens (2008, 2021). The longest course on the PGA Tour last year, it measures 7,765 yards. A par-72 brute, the South just never lets up. Seven of the 10 par-4s measure over 450 yards and the four par-3s average 208 yards in length. With an average green size of 5,000 square feet, Torrey Pines South and Muirfield Village are the only two venues on the Tour over 7,500 yards with greens that small.
Not hard enough? Let’s throw in an average fairway width of 24 to 27 yards and 82 bunkers. When you do finally get to those greens you are greeted by bumpy Poa annua grass. Considering the course difficulty, place on the schedule and non-signature status, it is no wonder fewer elite players have been entering this tournament.
Twelve of the top 30 in the OWGR are here and most of them are California guys supporting their home state. Nearly two-thirds of the approach shots on the South are struck from over 175 yards. The North Course plays easier, but it is no slouch. All four par-3s play over 200 yards, but one consolation is the greens are covered in bentgrass rather than Poa. Scoring is historically lower on the North as it also plays 507 yards shorter.
Rain early this week in La Jolla will not make the fairways any firmer. Adding length due to the precipitation is not what the medium to short hitters are looking for. Torrey is already one of the toughest tests on approach these guys will see all year outside of the majors. Power is the primary skill needed to capture the championship. It starts off the tee, but it is really needed everywhere else. Guys will miss fairways; the field historically falls well under the Tour average for safely finding the short grass. With the small greens, securing greens in regulation is just as much of a difficult endeavor. The South Course is really a major championship venue. The two U.S. Open winners are Tiger Woods (2008) and Jon Rahm (2021). Two of the best modern players we have seen over the past two decades.
After I get past the architecture, agronomy and course conditions, I like to run the numbers. These courses require a long driver, excellent mid- to long-iron player, opportunistic short game and an above-average putter. The ballstriking test limits gains through approach and off-the-tee, but you’ll see them with the flatstick. Don’t be fooled, those other categories are so hard it is difficult to separate yourself from the field.
The putter is important, but if Luke List and Justin Rose are winning here, it is not the first priority. When breaking down the contenders, I believe par-4 scoring will ultimately set you apart. The last 10 winners have gained eight strokes on the field on the 4s. In that same time, the average winning score is 13 under par. Best the field on the brutally long par-4s and you’re well on your way.
The cut last week was 13 under par. That’s the average winning score here! It’s time to reset you thinking and get ready for a real ballstriking examination. Pay attention to the details and look closely for a powerful player who is trending with the putter. Do that and your weekend wagers will look just like these.
Ray Acevedo/USA TODAY Sports
Win: Sahith Theegala
Similar to Max Homa, Sahith Theegala plays better in his home state. The All-American from Pepperdine finished fourth at the Farmers last year. An excellent putter, Theegala is near the top of the field for birdie-or-better percentage and birdies gained. Sahith also possesses a sneaky good long-iron game. He’s dangerous with a hybrid and that’s a huge asset on the South Course. A runner-up at the Sentry to start the season in Hawaii, watch him bring some of that confidence to the mainland. Take Sahith Theegala to win the Farmers Insurance Open (+3300 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's result: Lost. Nick Taylor missed the cut in La Quinta.
Year-to-date: 0–3, -3.00 units
Place: Sungjae Im
This is an incredible number on the SI Sportsbook. Sungjae Im was +230 last week to top 10 in Palm Desert! The smooth-swinging South Korean has made the cut in five straight starts at the Farmers and finished top 6 in the last two. His incredible ballstriking is perfectly completed by a stellar short game. Take Sungjae Im to finish Top 20 (+240 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's result: Lost. Top-5 pick Scottie Scheffler finished T17.Year-to-date: 1–2, -0.95 units
Showdown: Adrian Meronk over Justin Rose
I love looking at various leaderboards to find an edge. Adrian Meronk has finished 10th and runner-up in his last two DP World Tour starts. He’s incredibly long and still seems motivated from the Ryder Cup captain’s snub. Justin Rose on the other hand finished 40th at the Sentry and 57th at the Sony. His ballstriking isn’t quite ready for 2024 yet. Take Adrian Meronk over Justin Rose head-to-head (+100 bet365).
Last week's result: Won! Akshay Bhatia (MC/-12) defeated Rickie Fowler (MC/-2).
Year-to-date: 3–0, +3.00 units
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Xander Schauffele +900
Collin Morikawa +1000
Max Homa +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1000
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Sungjae Im +2000
Min Woo Lee +2200
Jason Day +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Keegan Bradley +2800
Sahith Theegala +3300
Eric Cole +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Sepp Straka +4000
Harris English +4500
Justin Rose +4500
Nicolai Hojgaard +4500
Adrian Meronk +5000
Will Zalatoris +5000