2024 Farmers Insurance Open: 5 best outright bets, DFS plays and more from the Golf Lock Guru

Throughout the PGA Tour season, I use statistical modeling to see how each golfer should fit that week’s course by parsing strokes gained data at a granular level before placing bets on outright winners. We’ll use this same data to identify the best DFS plays and fades, finding the guys who score tons of points that very few other players may decide to roster. 

Along the way we’ll let you know when we find some value among prop bets. I’ll be primarily using data and the tools from RickRunGood.com, PGA Tour and Shotlink for this column. 

It would be very easy to rant (I still might?) after our five outright picks went a combined 96-under par (nine six, you read that correctly) and not a single one finished in the Top 10.

I tried to warn you that The American Express is nearly impossible to model and that certainly rang true last weekend. Nick Dunlap’s victory marked the third straight week that a golfer who opened the tournament with odds longer than 200-1 won outright.

No one said it was going to be easy, but we will keep grinding.

Before we jump into the analysis, a reminder: THE TOURNAMENT STARTS ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.

Do not forget to put your bets and lineups in early.

All odds and pricing via DraftKings Sportsbook