Men’s Basketball Top 16 Reveal Predictions: What to Know a Month From Selection Sunday

Saturday marks a major milestone in the months-long crawl toward Selection Sunday in March. Early Saturday afternoon (12:30 p.m. ET on CBS), the NCAA tournament selection committee will reveal its mock top 16 teams, an early look at which teams are best positioned for high seeding in next month’s Big Dance. It’s best to use these rankings as a snapshot in time; with four weeks left, plenty can still change between now and Selection Sunday. However, the rankings do provide some valuable insights into how the committee views certain teams. In the process, they can help an astute bracketologist map out what this year’s committee values most.

Here’s how Sports Illustrated projects the committee will see the current top 16 and some thoughts on what to watch for during Saturday’s reveal.

1. Purdue Boilermakers
2. UConn Huskies
3. Houston Cougars
4. Arizona Wildcats
5. Tennessee Volunteers
6. Marquette Golden Eagles
7. North Carolina Tar Heels
8. Kansas Jayhawks
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Baylor Bears
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Duke Blue Devils
14. Illinois Fighting Illini
15. Wisconsin Badgers
16. Creighton Bluejays

Related: Men’s Bracket Watch: Purdue, Houston, UConn and Arizona Take Top Seeds

Things to Watch

Purdue vs. UConn for No. 1 overall

While there’s a legitimate argument for UConn as the better team, Purdue’s résumé is clearly ahead of UConn’s on paper. There’s just more depth to Purdue’s overall body of work, with a litany of huge nonconference wins and no bad losses. If the Huskies nudge ahead of the Boilermakers, it’s likely an eye-test play and a great sign for the Huskies.

The fourth No. 1 seed

This decision was made somewhat easier for the committee in recent days after Tennessee’s loss to the Texas A&M Aggies and North Carolina being tripped up by the Syracuse Orange, but there is at least some debate for the No. 4 overall spot held in these projections by Arizona. The Wildcats’ strong nonconference work and back-to-back Quad 1 wins last week put them in strong position here, but Marquette and Tennessee are also in the mix.

Predictive metrics vs. résumé

How will the committee rank teams like Auburn, with only two Quad 1 wins but elite metrics like KenPom? What about Kansas, a team with elite wins (Tennessee, UConn, the Kentucky Wildcats) but weaker performance-based metrics? Trying to decipher a pattern here between outlier teams like the Tigers and the Jayhawks could tell us a lot about how the committee might eventually view bubble teams in similar situations.

Will weak nonconference schedules hurt?

There are several bubble teams whose nonconference schedules rank in the bottom 100 nationally. We might get a preview of how the committee views those teams with how they seed teams like Iowa State, which accomplished little outside of league play before surging to the top of the Big 12. If Iowa State steals the last No. 2 seed or even makes a play for the top No. 3, chalk it up as a win for teams like the Cincinnati Bearcats, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Texas Longhorns and even Pittsburgh Panthers.