Big Ten football projections for 2024: Ohio State and Oregon are the clear favorites; Washington, USC and UCLA face tough roads

The Big Ten coaching carousel finally came to a halt earlier this week when longtime member UCLA named DeShaun Foster as the replacement for Chip Kelly.

The Bruins join Michigan, Washington, Indiana and Michigan State as the schools entering the Big Ten’s new era with new coaches.

(Technically, Northwestern is doing the same with David Braun, who was promoted to the permanent position in November. But because he guided the Wildcats throughout the 2023 season, we have categorized him differently.)

The staff turnover adds a layer of complication to our projections for the conference race in 2024 — projections that were plenty difficult already with the transfer portal chaos and an 18-team conference lacking divisions.

We have not picked ties in the order of finish below. The Hotline never picks ties. But there will be ties. Oh, yes, there will be ties. Ties involving multiple teams. Ties involving multiple teams that did not play each other. But that’s all for another day.

For now, we have examined the preliminary rosters, the schedules and the staffs and sketched an order of finish. These projections will be revised in the late spring, after the second transfer window.

Here we go …

1. Ohio State

2023 record: 11-2/8-1 Big Ten
Coach: Ryan Day (sixth season)
Top returnees: TB TreVeyon Henderson, DE JT Tuimoloau
Key newcomers: QB Will Howard (Kansas State); S Caleb Downs (Alabama)
Comment: The Buckeyes won the offseason, convincing a handful of their top players to return and a slew of transfers to join the drive for a national championship. But the biggest acquisition might have been Kelly. The former UCLA coach will serve as offensive coordinator and implement a scheme for OSU’s running game that should maximize the not-quite-elite talent along the line of scrimmage.

2. Oregon

2023 record: 12-2/8-1 Pac-12
Coach: Dan Lanning (third season)
Top returnees: WR Tez Johnson, LB Jeffrey Bassa
Key newcomers: QB Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma), CB Jabbar Muhammad (Washington)
Comment: Expectations are soaring for the Ducks after they fortified the roster with several crucial pickups in the transfer portal. That list starts with Gabriel, who should mitigate the impact of Bo Nix’s departure. The Ducks are well equipped to challenge OSU for the title and will host the head-to-head showdown Oct. 12. Anything short of a playoff appearance would be a major disappointment.

3. Michigan

2023 record: 15-0/9-0 Big Ten
Coach: Sherrone Moore (first season)
Top returnees: TE Colston Loveland, DT Mason Graham
Key newcomers: G Josh Priebe (Northwestern), LB Jaishawn Barham (Maryland)
Comment: Combine the departure of Jim Harbaugh and key staff members — that list starts with strength coach Ben Herbert — with the loss of quarterback J.J. McCarthy, and the Wolverines are destined for regression in 2024. To what degree? We believe it will be significant, to the point that a playoff berth should not be viewed as inevitable. Especially with a schedule that features Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, USC and Texas.

4. Wisconsin

2023 record: 7-6/5-4 Big Ten
Coach: Luke Fickell (second season)
Top returnees: TB Chez Mellusi, CB Ricardo Hallman
Key newcomers: QB Tyler Van Dyke (Miami), LB Jaheim Thomas (Arkansas)
Comment: Our forecast envisions a marked upturn in Year Two of the Fickell era based on an improved defense, Mellusi’s return, Van Dyke’s likely impact — he will receive better coaching in Madison than Coral Gables — and Fickell replicating his early-tenure trajectory at Cincinnati. The Bearcats won four games in his first season and 11 in his second. We don’t see 11 for the Badgers, but they should win nine.

5. Penn State

2023 record: 10-3/7-2 Big Ten
Coach: James Franklin (11th season)
Top returnees: QB Drew Allar, LB Abdul Carter
Key newcomers: WR Julian Fleming (Ohio State), CB A.J. Harris (Georgia)
Comment: Big Ten expansion could have a notable impact on Penn State’s position within the conference hierarchy: In any given year, there will be significantly more competition for the No. 3 position (behind Michigan and Ohio State). The Nittany Lions could feel the impact of the West Coast arrivals immediately despite Allar’s return and Franklin’s retooled staff, which includes former Indiana coach Tom Allen as the new defensive coordinator.

6. Nebraska

2023 record: 5-7/3-6 Big Ten
Coach: Matt Rhule (second season)
Top returnees: C Ben Scott, CB Tommi Hill
Key newcomers: QB Dylan Raiola (freshman), CB Blye Hill (St. Francis)
Comment: As with Fickell at Wisconsin, we expect Rhule’s second year in Lincoln to produce a significant upswing in performance. Enough for the Huskers to contend? Unlikely. They have too little talent at too many positions. But Rhule now has a feel for his personnel and will tweak the schemes accordingly. Much depends on Raiola, the heralded freshman, playing like an upperclassman.

7. Iowa

2023 record: 10-4/7-2 Big Ten
Coach: Kirk Ferentz (26th season)
Top returnees: QB Cade McNamara, LB Jay Higgins
Key newcomers: OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), LB Burke Gautcher (freshman)
Comment: We could devote this space to projecting more offensive offense and more granite defense from Iowa in 2024. But what if the Hawkeyes are slightly better than expected on offense, thanks to the coordinator change and McNamara’s return from injury, but a tick worse than expected on defense (despite a load of returnees)? After all, stranger things have happened. Iowa is hosting Washington in a conference game.

8. USC

2023 record: 8-5/5-4 Pac-12
Coach: Lincoln Riley (third season)
Top returnees: WR Zachariah Branch, DL Bear Alexander
Key newcomers: QB Jayden Maiava (UNLV), S Kamari Ramsey (UCLA)
Comment: USC’s entry into the Big Ten coincides with a huge third season for Riley, whose Year One momentum fizzled as losses mounted during the second half of 2023. Maiava will compete with Holiday Bowl star Miller Moss for the starting job. Neither is Caleb Williams, which means everyone else (on both sides of scrimmage) must raise the level of play. Otherwise, the Trojans, who face a comically difficult schedule — the non-conference portion includes Notre Dame and LSU — could finish below .500.

9. Rutgers

2023 record: 7-6/3-6 Big Ten
Coach: Greg Schiano (16th season; fifth in second stint)
Top returnees: TB Kyle Monangai, LB Mohamed Toure
Key newcomers: QB Athan Kaliakmanis (Minnesota), DT Malcolm Ray (Florida State)
Comment: The Scarlet Knights finally gained traction in Schiano’s second stint with the program, winning seven games overall and beating Miami in the Pinstripe Bowl. They should have a solid defense in 2024, and the Knights miss Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Oregon in conference play. So the next step depends largely on the offense, especially the quarterback play.

10. Michigan State

2023 record: 4-8/2-7 Big Ten
Coach: Jonathan Smith (first season)
Top returnees: RB Nathan Carter, DT Simeon Barrow
Key newcomers: QB Aidan Chiles (Oregon State), LB Jordan Turner (Wisconsin)
Comment: What reason is there to think the Spartans will attain a degree of relevance in the conference race? Zero. And that’s just how Smith prefers his expectations. Chiles has all-conference potential. If he reaches that level in 2024, MSU could be one of the nation’s biggest surprises. We suspect he’s at least one year away, however. The surrounding talent isn’t good enough, yet.

11. Washington

2023 record: 14-1/9-0 Pac-12
Coach: Jedd Fisch (first season)
Top returnees: WR Giles Jackson, S Kamren Fabiculanan
Key newcomers: QB Will Rogers (Mississippi State), CB Ephesians Prysock (Arizona)
Comment: UW’s roster has been gutted like few in recent memory. Add the coaching change and a November schedule so tough it should be outlawed, and the Huskies are more likely to finish 6-6 than 10-2. Granted, that forecast could brighten if the spring transfer window delivers impact players on the lines of scrimmage. But at this point, we don’t see UW challenging for the conference title or a CFP berth.

12. Maryland

2023 record: 8-5/4-5 Big Ten
Coach: Mike Locksley (sixth season)
Top returnees: WR Tai Felton, DL Quashon Fuller
Key newcomers: QB MJ Morris (N.C. State), CB Jalen Huskey (Bowling Green)
Comment: Locksley has the program rolling — that term is relative, of course — with back-to-back seasons of eight victories. If Morris provides a steady hand, the ingredients are in place for another postseason berth. But like so many other mid-level programs in the Big Ten, the Terps are in danger of getting lost in the conference’s massive middle with the heavyweight programs from the West Coast coming aboard.

13. Minnesota

2023 record: 6-7/3-6 Big Ten
Coach: PJ Fleck (eighth season)
Top returnees: TB Darius Taylor, CB Justin Walley
Key newcomers: QB Max Brosmer (New Hampshire), CB Ethan Robinson (Bucknell)
Comment: Yet another team depending on a transfer quarterback to elevate the offense and improve its victory total. Brosmer is well regarded but won’t have much time to settle in: The Gophers open league play against Iowa’s granite defense, then face Michigan. If Brosmer’s confidence is intact after that dastardly double, Minnesota might have a chance to claim its sixth consecutive bowl berth (excluding 2020).

14. UCLA

2023 record: 8-5/4-5 Pac-12
Coach: DeShaun Foster (first season)
Top returnees: QB Ethan Garbers, NT Jay Toia
Key newcomers: WR Rico Flores (Notre Dame), DE Collins Acheampong (Miami)
Comment: Chip Kelly’s aversion to NIL and recruiting wasn’t the only reason he bolted for the playcalling gig in Columbus. He could see the competitive reality, as well: The Bruins simply don’t have the personnel to compete for a top-tier finish in the Big Ten, at least not in 2024. And now they must tackle that daunting challenge with a rookie coach and a difficult schedule. (Like USC, they play LSU.) It could be a long fall in Westwood.

15. Northwestern

2023 record: 8-5/5-4 Big Ten
Coach: David Braun (second season)
Top returnees: RB Cam Porter, LB Xander Mueller
Key newcomers: OL Idrys Cotton (freshman), Edge Patrick Schaller (freshman)
Comment: Braun did masterful work steering the Wildcats out of the hazing scandal and through an eight-win season that trumped all expectations. That said, the feel-good nature of the 2023 success will give way to the roster reality of 2024: Northwestern needs help, and plenty of it. But the university’s admissions bar makes quick fixes through the transfer portal difficult. Perhaps the spring will prove fruitful.

16. Illinois

2023 record: 5-7/3-6 Big Ten
Coach: Bret Bielema (fourth season)
Top returnees: QB Luke Altmyer, LB Dylan Rosiek
Key newcomers: TE Cole Rusk (Murray State), DL Dennis Briggs (Florida State)
Comment: Bielema’s tenure in Champaign began as expected, with significant improvement from Year One to Year Two. But the Illini regressed in 2023, making this a crucial third season. His success, and the program’s broader momentum, largely hinge on Altmyer, who threw nearly one interception (10 total) for every touchdown (13) last season and must improve his efficiency. The schedule has numerous sinkholes.

17. Purdue

2023 record: 4-8/3-6 Big Ten
Coach: Ryan Walters (second season)
Top returnees: QB Hudson Card, S Dillon Thieneman
Key newcomers: OL Joshua Sales (Indiana), CB Nyland Green (Georgia)
Comment: Walters’ work to upgrade the roster — his transfer class is enormous — could result in a better team that lacks the results to show for it. If so, the Boilermakers can thank their schedule. They play Notre Dame (home) and Oregon State (road) in non-conference action and face a daunting league schedule with Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State. We’ll wait to judge the Walters era until the end of his third year.

18. Indiana

2023 record: 3-9/1-8 Big Ten
Coach: Curt Cignetti (first season)
Top returnees: OT Carter Smith, CB Kobee Minor
Key newcomers: QB Kurtis Rourke (Ohio), DL Mikail Kamara (James Madison)
Comment: Even in an era of expedited roster turnover, Cignetti’s reclamation project likely will take years. The Hoosiers lack the talent, size and depth necessary to compete for a mid-level finish in the massive conference. (Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?) Admittedly, we aren’t convinced Cignetti was the right coach for this job. Or if any coach is the right coach for this job.

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