Franchise Tag Predictions: How Every NFL Team Will (or Won’t) Use the Tag
Most NFL teams either have an obvious franchise tag candidate or don’t have one at all for the 2024 offseason.
But there are a handful teams that will have tough decisions to make before the March 5 deadline to apply the franchise tag. The franchise tag window opens at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be scrambling to re-sign Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Jr. to long-term deals to avoid using the franchise tag on one of them before the deadline.
The same can be said for the Kansas City Chiefs and Chris Jones because the team also has cornerback L’Jarius Sneed scheduled to be a free agent. The cornerback might be available on the open market if the Chiefs use the tag on Jones.
Here are predictions for what each NFL team might do regarding the franchise tag. All salary cap numbers are from OvertheCap.com.
Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Cardinals could look to keep Marquise “Hollywood” Brown because he’s still dynamic downfield and has a close connection with quarterback Kyler Murray. But Brown hasn’t played well since arriving in Arizona two years ago and wouldn’t be worth the $21.6 million one-year salary for wide receivers playing on the tag.
Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Falcons don’t have any key free agents to tag because most of their best offensive players were drafted in the past three years. Also, the organization has spent money already securing critical offensive linemen and added defensive talent last free agency.
Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Will tag Justin Madubuike
Expect Baltimore to use the franchise tag as a placeholder for retaining Madubuike because the team doesn’t have much cap space flexibility. The Ravens have about $7 million in cap space for 2024 and defensive tackles would be owed $19.7 million for playing under the one-year tag. A long-term contract extension would allow the Ravens to move the hefty cap hits down the line to different years. And Madubuike would be worth the trouble based on his dominant ’23 season. Linebacker Patrick Queen could also be an option for the tag if the team somehow works out a deal with Madubuike before next month’s deadline.
Jessica Rapfogel/USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Bills will likely pass on using the tag because they need to figure out ways to get under the salary cap—they’re currently $51.2 million over the red line.
Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Will sign Brian Burns to multiyear deal
The Panthers can’t let Burns go for nothing after passing on valuable draft picks from interested suitors the past two trade deadlines. The Panthers have about $28.5 million, enough to absorb the $23.3 million cap hit for defensive ends who play under the franchise tag. But look for the Panthers to finally hammer out a long-term contract extension with Burns, who has 46 career sacks in five seasons. If they get the new deal done before March 5, perhaps the team uses the tag on linebacker Frankie Luvu.
Chicago Bears
Prediction: Will tag Jaylon Johnson
Contract negotiations between the Bears and Johnson haven’t been easy, which is why the team shopped the Pro Bowl cornerback during last year’s deadline. But they kept him for many reasons, including his impressive play last season and how he thrived under the scheme of coach Matt Eberflus, who returned for a third year, despite two losing seasons. The Bears have $46.8 million in cap space and could afford the $18.4 million price for franchise-tagged cornerbacks.
Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Will sign Tee Higgins to multiyear contract
Yes, the Bengals have to prioritize Ja’Marr Chase’s contract extension and already have plenty of their cap space tied to Joe Burrow for the foreseeable future. But the Bengals have enough flexibility to keep Burrow’s top two playmakers for at least another season. If Higgins gets tagged, he would take $21.6 million from the Bengals’ $59.46 million in cap space. That’s doable, but the Bengals need roster upgrades and have a few other in-house free agents to possibly retain. The best outcome here would be a multiyear deal for Higgins.
Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Browns probably don’t have the option to use the tag because they’re currently over $19.6 million in cap space. Za’Darius Smith might be their best in-house free agent and he turns 32 in September.
Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Won’t tag
Last season, the Cowboys tagged Tony Pollard, but he wasn’t the quality No. 1 back the team envisioned when they moved on from Ezekiel Elliott. The team could re-sign Pollard to an affordable multiyear extension to possibly pair him with another running back, one who could move the chains in short-yardage situations. Veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore played well last season, but the team already has Trevon Diggs and Daron Bland. The team has cap space issues ($19.7 million over) and needs to prioritize the extensions for Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb.
Denver Broncos
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Broncos are $24.11 million over the cap, partly because of the disastrous contract extension they handed Russell Wilson two years ago. The franchise tag doesn’t appear to be an option in Denver.
Related: NFL Franchise Tag Primer: These Players Could Get Tagged in 2024
Detroit Lions
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Lions don’t have a free agent worth the franchise tag, but if they did, that would have been an option with $46.1 million in cap space.
Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Packers also don’t have a free agent worth the franchise tag, and will need to do some work to get under the red line, as they’re currently $2.8 million over the cap.
Houston Texans
Prediction: Will sign Jonathan Greenard to multiyear contract
Greenard might not be a household name, but DeMeco Ryans and the Texans know how vital he was for the defense last season. Greenard was the team’s best pass rusher early in the season before rookie Will Anderson Jr. found his footing. Expect Houston to keep the duo together to make life miserable for quarterbacks in the AFC South. The team also has the option of using the tag on Greenard because they have $57.7 million in cap space.
Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Will sign Michael Pittman Jr. to multiyear contract
Pittman has been one of the most consistent wide receivers since entering the league as a second-round pick in 2020. Expect the Colts to reward Pittman with a lucrative contract extension before March 5 because they have the flexibility, with $58.9 million in cap space. They also don’t have other notable in-house free agents, so they can prioritize the QB friendly target.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Will tag Calvin Ridley and re-sign Josh Allen long-term
The Jaguars will likely rush to re-sign Allen to a long-term deal after a monster season for the 2019 No. 7 pick. If they get the deal done, that would allow Jacksonville to slap the tag on Ridley, who had a 1,000-yard receiving during his first year with the Jaguars. Ideally, getting multiyear commitments from Allen and Ridley would be better because the Jaguars only have $11.2 million in cap space and Trevor Lawrence is due for a lucrative extension.
Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Will tag L’Jarius Sneed and re-sign Chris Jones long-term
After messy contract negotiations last year, expect the Chiefs to lock down Jones, who’s coming off another dominant postseason to help the team capture back-to-back titles. Also, Jones said he’s not going anywhere during the Chiefs’ parade to celebrate the latest Lombardi Trophy. His agent wasn’t too happy about that, but all signs point to an agreement coming soon. If that occurs, the Chiefs would likely use the franchise tag on Sneed, which might only be a placeholder for the team that has $22.8 million in cap space.
Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports
Las Vegas Raiders
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Raiders adore Josh Jacobs and likely want him back, but there’s a new general manager in Tom Telesco. He declined to pay Melvin Gordon top-of-the-market money a few years ago and re-signed Austin Ekeler to a team-friendly deal during his tenure as the Chargers’ GM. Either the Raiders re-sign Jacobs to multiyear contract extension or lean on Zamir White to be their new leading rusher. Jacobs had a down season in 2023, rushing for 805 yards in 13 games.
Los Angeles Chargers
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Chargers have cap space issues, with $45.8 million over the cap. They also don’t have a player worthy of the franchise tag. Los Angeles will focus on cutting players instead of retaining them.
Los Angeles Rams
Prediction: Won’t tag
Offensive guard Kevin Dotson could be an option for the franchise tag, but GM Les Snead has a track record of not splurging on offensive linemen. Snead had one of the best moves of last season by trading for Dotson, only costing the team two Day 3 draft picks. The Rams will likely push to re-sign Dotson to a team friendly and would probably draw a line if the counter offers get too high.
Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Dolphins might be forced to let defensive tackle Christian Wilkins test the market because they’re $51.8 million over the cap and still need to work out a long-term deal with Tua Tagovailoa. Wilkins might not be a priority at the moment, but the team could move to re-sign him in free agency. He’s been a productive playmaker in the middle of the team’s defensive line the past five years.
Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Will let Kirk Cousins test market and sign Danielle Hunter to multiyear deal
The Vikings appeared ready for a new quarterback after passing on re-signing Cousins before the 2023 season. They might have had a change of heart with how well Cousins played for the first two months of the season. But the initial plan to change QBs in ’24 likely returned once Cousins tore his Achilles tendon. Letting Cousins test the market, however, would be risky because he’ll likely have plenty of interest and could leave the Vikings scrambling for a new signal-caller in free agency and/or the draft. Also, expect the team to retain Hunter after they declined to trade him in October. Hunter had another dominant season with 16.5 sacks.
New England Patriots
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Patriots have a handful of standout in-house free agents, but none that are worth the price of a franchise tag. Safety Kyle Dugger and offensive guard Michael Onwenu could return on long-term contract extensions. The team might let edge rusher Josh Uche walk after a disappointing season. New England has $66 million in cap space.
New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Saints are in no position currently to use the franchise tag, with a league-high $83.6 million over the cap.
Related: NFL Mock Draft 2024: Early Offseason Look at First-Round Picks
New York Giants
Prediction: Will tag Xavier McKinney and let Saquon Barkley go
Once again, Barkley won’t be the top in-house free agent priority for the Giants. The focus will be on McKinney, who had a breakout season due to his versatility and elite coverage skills. Expect McKinney to leverage his dominant season to a lucrative pay day, but the Giants might need time to work out a long-term deal and could use the franchise tag in the meantime. As for Barkley, this might finally be the year that he gets to see his true value on the open market.
New York Jets
Prediction: Won’t tag
Edge rusher Bryce Huff has said he won’t be taking a hometown discount to return to the Jets and the team doesn’t appear interested in paying him a lucrative contract extension. Expect the Jets to decline using the franchise tag.
Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Eagles don’t have a free agent worth the price of a franchise tag. Philadelphia has $20.2 million in cap space.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Steelers don’t have a free agent worth the price of a franchise tag, and they’re currently $13.8 million over the cap.
San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Won’t tag
On a different team, perhaps Chase Young would be a candidate for the franchise tag. The 2020 No. 2 pick might not be in the long-term plans for the 49ers because he struggled after being traded by the Commanders in October and the team is currently $3 million over the cap.
Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Seahawks don’t have the cap space ($5.2 million over) to use the franchise tag on Leonard Williams, despite giving up a 2024 second-round pick to acquire him from the Giants in October. Maybe the team looks to re-sign him on a long-term contract extension, but it’s unknown how new coach Mike Macdonald views the stout interior defensive lineman.
Jeremy Reper/USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Will tag Mike Evans and sign Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield Jr. long-term
After the seasons this trio had, expect the Buccaneers to retain all of them one way or another. Evans didn’t give his team a hometown discount last season and the move might pay off because he had a dominant 2023 season. He still has plenty left in the tank and could see north of $20 million next year with the franchise tag or a long-term deal. Mayfield might have found a long-term home in Tampa Bay and Winfield delivered an All-Pro season.
Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Won’t tag
After Derrick Henry said farewell to Titans fans, it’s clear the team plans on moving on from their long-time workhorse back. Outside of Henry, no other free agent seems worthy of the franchise tag. Tennessee has $67.7 million in cap space, currently second most in the league.
Washington Commanders
Prediction: Won’t tag
The Commanders have the most cap space in the league with $73.6 million. But they likely won’t use the franchise tag because they don’t have a star in-house free agent.