Here's why Jayson Tatum is a good buy-low bet to win the NBA MVP award
During NBA All-Star Weekend, Jayson Tatum discussed his place in the MVP conversation. The Boston Celtics star left no doubt about his desire to one day win the award, but he also expressed a belief that losing in the 2022 finals has negatively impacted voters’ perception of him.
“Would I love to win? Yes,” Tatum said. “But apparently us losing in the finals two years ago effects what people think of me now. So, I guess I got some ground to make up.”
Jayson Tatum comments on his MVP status and how the voters are using the #Celtics loss in the Finals two-years ago against him:
“Apparently us losing in the Finals two-years ago affects what people think of me now, so I guess I got some ground to make up.”
(@espn,… pic.twitter.com/t1FJCWJ8Ni— The Celtics Files (@CelticsFiles) February 17, 2024
It was a familiar sentiment, heard often in award debates, that postseason success, or a lack thereof, can hinder a players’ candidacy for future awards — until they get over the hump. As Tatum said during his all-star press conference, different voters have different criteria.
His comments came just four days after ESPN published a straw poll of 100 league insiders where Tatum was voted as sixth in the MVP race, seemingly validating his concern. How is that the best player on the league’s best team didn’t receive a single first-place vote? Even most betting odds have him no lower than fifth.
Nikola Jokic is the favorite to win MVP according to ESPN’s NBA MVP straw poll
(Via https://t.co/Gq8JOciiga) pic.twitter.com/EHi1BleQkn
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) February 13, 2024
So is Tatum being snubbed? I’d say so. Personally, I’d have him over both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic, whose individual seasons have been better but whose teams are either falling short of expectations or struggling altogether. I could make a case to have him as high as second.
However, that’s not important. I don’t have an MVP vote, as many of the people in the poll do. Their opinions matter more than mines. What actually matters as it relates to Tatum is whether he has a chance to move up in the minds of voters. Are his +4000 odds at BetMGM worth buying low today?
Again, I think the answer is yes. And it all comes back to team success. At 43-12, the Celtics are the only team in the NBA on pace for at least 60 wins this season. And though that hardly guarantees the best player from that team to be named Most Valuable Player, it would be hard to justify voting for anyone else short of a historic effort — like Nikola Jokic’s 2022 MVP season.
When the Milwaukee Bucks won 60 games in 2018-19, Antetokounmpo won MVP. When the Houston Rockets won 65 the year before, James Harden won MVP. And the year before that, Stephen Curry won MVP for the 67-win Golden State Warriors.
Now, of course, those were some of the greatest individual seasons ever, and Tatum isn’t having that. But he’s having an awesome year, nonetheless, averaging 27 points on a career-high 47 percent shooting, 8.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists. Combined with his team’s success, it’s hard to imagine the MVP favorites ahead of him can afford to slip even a little.
If the season ended today, Gilgeous-Alexander would be my pick for the award because of the way he’s elevated a young Oklahoma City Thunder team with modest expectations to a top-two seed. But Tatum remains a good buy-low candidate for bettors searching for value.