UFC Mexico City predictions
The stars are aligning at UFC Mexico City for not one, but two possible title eliminators.
When Brandon Moreno and Yair Rodriguez step into the octagon opposite Brandon Royval and Brian Ortega on Saturday, they’ll face familiar foes over whom they hold past victories, both with slight caveats.
Moreno defeated Royval at UFC 255 to put himself on the path to eventually winning the flyweight title, while Rodriguez beat Ortega at UFC Long Island before going on to win an interim featherweight title in his next fight. In both instances, a shoulder injury to the losing fighter contributed to their downfall. Now, not only do Royval and Ortega get a chance to avenge those losses, an impressive performance could vault them into the thick of the title picture with flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja needing a dance partner for UFC 301 in Rio and new featherweight champion Ilia Topuria needing a challenger for what could be a blockbuster event in Spain in the near future.
In other main card action, lightweight prospects Daniel Zellhuber and Francisco Prado put their sparkling records on the line, 19-year-old bantamweight Raul Rosas Jr. fights The Ultimate Fighter 29 alum Ricky Turcios, Yazmin Jauregui looks to bounce back from her first loss when she faces Sam Hughes in a strawweight contest, and lightweight finishers Manuel Torres and Chris Duncan go toe-to-toe.
What: UFC Mexico City
Where: Arena Ciudad de México in Mexico City
When: Saturday, Feb. 25. The entire event airs live on ESPN+ beginning with a seven-fight preliminary portion at 7 p.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card that starts at 10 p.m. ET.
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
I can’t lie, I was heartbroken to see Brandon Royval fall flat against Alexandre Pantoja. I’m an unabashed fan of both fighters, but had truly come to believe that it was The Year of the Raw Dawg. To see him lose a one-sided decision in less than memorable fashion was discouraging. Royval was my pick to end 2023 as flyweight champion and stepping in on short notice for Amir Albazi, he can get back on track sooner than expected, he just has to beat Brandon Moreno.
I’m ready to be hurt again, because I don’t think Royval passes this test. Nothing in Moreno’s split decision loss to Pantoja should make anyone think that he’s lost a step; if anything, Moreno put on an incredible performance that was only slightly bettered by the current champ and, frankly, no one would have been shocked if it went the other way. We’re witnessing Moreno at the peak of his powers.
A vintage reckless Royval performance could steal the day here, but as he’s admitted himself, he struggled with the slower pace that Pantoja used to foil him at UFC 296. We know that Moreno can change speeds and find success. We can’t say the same for Royval.
I’m expecting a thrilling opening two rounds before Moreno pulls away in Round 3 and finishes via submission.
Pick: Moreno
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega
Mexico City is going to have plenty to celebrate Saturday.
Before Moreno beats Royval, I have Yair Rodriguez fending off Brian Ortega once again. “El Pantera” is just a notch below the elite of the division (a tier that currently includes Ilia Topuria, Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Movsar Evloev), but a notch below that group is still more than good enough to beat the majority of featherweights. That includes Ortega in my estimation.
I’ve picked Ortega to come out on top in some of his biggest fights, including when he fought Max Holloway for the title at UFC 231 and when he fought Rodriguez over a year and a half ago. Both times, dead wrong. It seems like just yesterday that Ortega was that dude destined to become champion, but then you remember that the Holloway fight took place in 2018 and you have to wonder if that ship has sailed.
Inactivity can be a killer in this business and Ortega wasn’t the most active fighter before he was injured in the first Rodriguez fight. How can we expect him to be at his sharpest when they face off again? Rodriguez can hang with Ortega on the ground even if he can’t outright beat him there and on the feet Ortega doesn’t have the speed nor the technique to keep up with the former interim champ.
This is a rare five-round fight that’s neither a title bout nor a main event and while I see Ortega having the toughness to go the distance and to give Rodriguez a few scares, this should be a win on the scorecards for Rodriguez.
Pick: Rodriguez
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado
The rangy Daniel Zellhuber has physical tools that give him an advantage over many fighters in the lightweight division, but can he put it all together? He may not have to find out against Francisco Prado, a finisher who is going to have a difficult time getting past Zellhuber’s long limbs.
Prado leads with his head and follows with heavy hands, a strategy that seems ill-advised against Zellhuber. If he leaves that chin out on a tee, Zellhuber will utilize his skilled boxing to crack it with jabs and straights over and over again. Things could get exciting if Prado is willing to take risks in the striking, which Zellhuber and his Xtreme Couture coaches have to be aware of. Even if he’s down on the cards, Prado will be dangerous for 15 minutes.
Both fighters are young in their careers and I have Zellhuber a step ahead skill-wise, so along with his rapidly maturing mental game, I like his chances of not just beating Prado, but handing him his first loss inside the distance.
Pick: Zellhuber
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
I honestly don’t know if this is brilliant matchmaking or an incredibly bad idea on paper. Ricky Turcios is one of the true wild cards on the UFC roster, and while Raul Rosas Jr. should have him beat skill for skill, I’m not sure Turcios is the kind of guy you throw in the cage with the hopes of building up a prospect.
Rosas—19 now! Where does the time go?—can look like a world-beater early in fights and also late as long as he’s dictating the offense. In his loss to Christian Rodriguez, we saw how frustrated and exhausted he can become when presented with a sturdy defense that he can’t just rush through. The ability to solve those kinds of problems will come with experience.
How much he’ll learn in the Turcios fight could tell us a lot about how Rosas’ 2024 campaign goes. Turcios is not the most defensively responsible fighter, but he is extraordinarily durable and he’s not going to slow down in the third round. If Rosas has any trouble with Turcios in Round 2, the last five minutes could be a struggle to get through.
I’m a believer in Rosas’ pressure game and potential, so he should have enough in the tank to outlast Turcios.
Pick: Rosas Jr.
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes
Let’s not take too much away from Yazmin Jauregui’s disappointing loss to Denise Gomes. Sometimes, you just get caught and rolled over and you’ve got to go back to the lab. Besides, the lopsided odds in Jauregui’s favor said more about the oddsmakers overlooking Gomes than a realistic gauge of how developed Jauregui is 11 fights into her pro career.
She’s once again a massive favorite as she takes on the scrappy Sam Hughes and again I would preach caution when picking Jauregui to just run through Hughes. Hughes has been the underdog in each one of her UFC fights and she’s won three of her last four, so she’s either lucky or good a bit of both. Either way, not someone that Jauregui should underestimate under any circumstances.
All that said, if Jauregui sticks to the game plan, keeps this on the feet, and uses her speed to batter Hughes, she should be fine. There are clear defensive deficiencies that Jauregui needs to work on, which isn’t surprising given that she’s only a few days shy of her 25th birthday, but Hughes doesn’t have enough pop in her standup to threaten Jauregui. This should be a showcase fight for Jauregui, who will look to finish and eventually settle for a decision nod.
Pick: Jauregui
Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan
We’ve got a good one to open the main card here as Manuel Torres and Chris Duncan both have a fine nose for the finish.
It’s Torres who has compiled the hotter highlight reel recently with his past nine fights all ending in the first round (including a pair of submission losses). He’s shown more patience since earning his UFC contract, but he still moves like a coiled spring, ready to explode with a knockout flurry at any moment. He has a rapidly improving jab and if he can resist standing and banging with Duncan, he should find the opening for a KO blow.
He has to be careful with Duncan though. The Scotsman packs power in both hands, so if he closes the distance early and pressures Torres, it could change the whole complexion of the fight. The onus is on Duncan to make this ugly, which he’s shown he can do. He’ll take one to land one if the situation calls for it.
I just don’t know if Duncan should eat that many clean shots from Torres. All it takes is one accurate strike from Torres to put Duncan down and I’m guessing he finds it.
Pick: Torres
Preliminaries
Raoni Barcelos def. Cristian Quinonez
Jesus Aguilar def. Mateus Mendonca
Edgar Chairez def. Daniel Lacerda
Claudio Puelles def. Fares Ziam
Ronaldo Rodriguez def. Denys Bondar