The 5 best outright bets for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Throughout the PGA Tour season, I use statistical modeling to see how each golfer should fit that week's course by parsing strokes gained data at a granular level before placing bets on outright winners. We'll use this same data to identify the best DFS plays and fades, finding the guys who score tons of points that very few other players may decide to roster. 

Along the way we'll let you know when we find some value among prop bets. I'll be primarily using data and the tools from RickRunGood.com, PGA Tour and Shotlink for this column. 

I can assure you when I started writing this column it was not intended as comedy but where the reader (you) laughs at the writer (me) for his misfortune. It's turning into that and I don't like it one bit.

Once again, one of our outright bets flamed out in fairly spectacular fashion last week. This time it was Shane Lowry, who was tied for the 54-hole lead only to shoot even par on Sunday on a PGA National track playing much easier than in years past. He even had a nice little failed mini-tantrum after dunking one into one of the many water hazards to add some insult to injury.

The list of outright winners odds in 2024 now reads: 200-1, 400-1, 300-1, 125-1, 60-1, 125-1, 80-1, 40-1, 100-1.

I cannot remember a stretch like this in my long history of gambling on this silly game. You know the axiom that most gamblers quit just before the hit it big? That is quite literally the only thing keeping me going at this point. In any case, we head to Bay Hill for one of the best tournaments on the PGA Tour calendar: The Arnold Palmer Invitational. It’s another signature event and the stars will be out in a big way at Arnie's place.

Surely this has to be the week we see one of stars walk away with the trophy right? RIGHT?! I am simply at a loss for words for how the season is transpiring thus far, but spirits are high in the Guru household nonetheless. Simply put, I love this golf course, and love watching some of the best players in the world play it. In my opinion, this is every bit the "Fifth Major" as The Players - and is a more entertaining and challenging golf course than Pete Dye's crown jewel.