Fantasy Baseball 2024: These Five Pitchers Could Be Late-Round Sleepers
If you’re loading up on offense early in your fantasy baseball drafts (I am), here are a few pitchers to consider in the later rounds.
These pitchers are available after round 20, and all have had good showings so far this spring.
When drafting pitching late, I like to take a shot on upside.
Check out this list of pitchers who were all drafted after pick 250 last season: Zach Eflin, Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans, Justin Steele, Bobby Miller, Tanner Bibee, Eury Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Pivetta. Odds are the winning team in your league had at least one of these arms on the roster last season. One of my first-place teams had three -- one I drafted and the other two were waiver picks.
So, is there value after pick 250? Absolutely. At this cost, you have nothing to lose. If these picks don’t pay off, you’ll also have waiver wire options to consider.
Here are five pitchers under the radar that I am targeting right now.
Kim Klement Neitzel/USA TODAY Sports
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
Average Draft Position: 258
Batters averaged only .221 vs. Crawford last season, tied with Max Scherzer for the ninth-best among pitchers who had 350-plus balls in play for 2023. He finished with a 4.04 ERA compared to a more favorable xERA of 3.25, and his chase rate was in the 82nd percentile of the league. Crawford lowered his ERA and increased his strikeout rate in 2022 and ’23, and he could take another step forward this year. So far this spring, Crawford has tossed eight innings of one-run ball with seven punch-outs. Crawford has a five-pitch arsenal. His four-seamer and slider are both elite pitches that induce plenty of swinging strikes.
Luis Severino, New York Mets
ADP: 291
Severino will play in Queens this year, and I’m willing to take a shot on the former Yankee across town. There’s talk he was tipping last year, and if that was the case, then fixing that problem should improve his secondary pitches. Severino has tossed five shutout innings this spring while striking out five. After a disastrous 2023 -- which started with a shaky spring -- I am willing to take the discount and bet the former all-star will return SP value.
Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins
ADP: 293
When Cabrera has command, he is one of the filthiest pitchers in MLB. However, in 2023, the 5.96 average walks per nine innings was in the bottom 1% of MLB. That should make fantasy managers nervous, but at this stage of the draft, we are shooting for upside, and his 10.66 strikeouts per nine last season indicate plenty of that. So far this spring, Cabrera seems to be in command, pitching five innings in two appearances with no runs or walks allowed. It’s a small sample size, but I will take a flier.
A.J. Puk, Marlins
ADP: 309
Puk has had a stellar spring, striking out 15 batters and allowing no runs across 8⅓ innings and three starts for the Marlins. That equates to more than 16 strikeouts per nine innings. No pitcher has more punch-outs this spring, and Puk is the only pitcher that has tossed more than eight innings that has yet to allow a run. The lefty is expected to claim the fourth spot in the rotation for the Marlins to open the season, allowing Braxton Garrett (shoulder) more time to return to full strength. Sure, he’s a converted reliever who has yet to pitch more than 66 innings in any single season, but that’s also why you can get him in the last rounds of your draft.
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
ADP: 387
In the deepest of leagues, I am giving Lopez a look. The Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30 million contract after pitching to a 3.27 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate for three combined teams (White Sox, Angels, Guardians) in 2023. Lopez didn’t have a single start last season, pitching exclusively in relief, but he does have starting experience, pitching 180-plus innings for the White Sox in 2018 and ’19. The Braves optioned righty AJ Smith-Shawver this week, leaving a two-person battle between Lopez and Bryce Elder for who will be the SP5 in Atlanta. Lopez has pitched eight innings of one-run ball this spring, allowing three hits and two walks and striking out seven. Elder has allowed 10 hits and six runs across 7⅔, however, striking batters out at nearly 12 per nine. Lopez looks like the current favorite, but whoever wins the job should be rostered in deep leagues, as the Braves' offense will lend plenty of run support and help rack up those valuable wins.
Others: Yusei Kikuchi, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Jose Urquidy