Will Bronny James declare for the 2024 NBA draft with USC's season over? Why it's so complicated.

Bronny James and the USC Trojans were eliminated from the Pac-12 men’s basketball tournament, effectively ending his season.

That means Bronny could potentially soon declare for the 2024 NBA Draft. Otherwise, he could wait another year and opt to turn pro after another year or longer in the NCAA either at USC or elsewhere via the transfer portal. After finishing his freshman campaign, the choice is ultimately his to make.

Ultimately, though, it is hardly a secret that LeBron James hopes to eventually play alongside his son in the NBA. LeBron has a fascinating player option in his contract that would allow him to either stay with the Lakers or become a free agent and join whatever NBA team potentially drafts his son if Los Angeles did not.

Bronny, who was able to return to play after suffering a terrifying cardiac arrest before the season began, is at a crossroads. Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul recently told ESPN that Bronny will make his decision based on team interest, not draft position.

If he decides to turn pro, due to his heart condition, he will need to get cleared by NBA’s fitness-to-play panel. Yet one Eastern Conference executive told draft analyst Jeremy Woo that it would be surprising if Bronny wasn’t in the draft.

His choice is especially complicated by the fact that even before the health scare, talent evaluators had concerns that Bronny may not be ready for the NBA for several years. While he had shown “NBA potential” during his time in high school, he was never considered one of the best players in his class.

During his time in high school, the McDonald’s All-American honoree had some impressive on-court accomplishments as well. When we scouted Bronny, for example, we immediately noticed that his defense was his most compelling trait.

His offense, however, is nowhere near ready to contribute at a pro level.

Take a look at how he fared in the catch-all metric offensive box plus-minus, for example. Bronny, who is listed at 6-foot-4 and is perhaps a bit shorter, finished the season with a -1.8 in OBPM. That was by far the lowest of any player in USC’s rotation.

No prospect under 6-foot-6 who finished their collegiate careers with a negative OBPM in the NCAA has ever heard his name called in the NBA Draft, based on all data pulled from Bart Torvik available since 2008.

Among all collegiate players drafted during that span, also per Bart Torvik, only two had a lower career OBPM in the NCAA: Kostas Antetokounmpo and Daniel Orton.

Kostas, a younger brother of Giannis Antetokounmpo, was the last pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. He played just 22 games in his NBA career, totaling just 21 points. Orton played 51 games, recording 143 points in the NBA.

Simply put, especially at his size and where he is at in his development right now, it would be quite difficult to project a role for Bronny in the NBA with his minimal offensive impact.

Of course, as one Western Conference executive told Woo, Bronny could always return to school and try to improve his draft stock:

“If he goes back, he gets an entire offseason. That’s the biggest thing to me. You can see a big jump with kids from Year 1 to Year 2, and I’d expect him to come back knowing a role and where he is in the pecking order. I don’t think he knew and I don’t think USC ever knew this year. In some games I felt he’s very important to them and in other games they’ve kind of force-fed him minutes. And if he came back another year, I think he’d pretty firmly know where he stands.”

Despite how well Bronny has handled his fame and how remarkable it was for him to come from his health scare, if this is the end, his time at USC was underwhelming.

Other similarly-sized players (e.g. Davion Mitchell and Malachi Flynn) were able to successfully use the transfer portal to bounce back from similarly slow starts in the NCAA and eventually play their way into becoming first-round picks.

The transfer portal could absolutely change his trajectory. But it clearly means a lot to LeBron and his family to have Bronny play nearby in Los Angeles.

Perhaps he doesn’t use the transfer portal and he doesn’t feel that USC is the right fit either. Maybe, as Ricky O’Donnell mused late last month, Bronny decides to just take the leap now (via SB Nation):

“If Bronny enters the 2024 draft, he has a few excuses that work in his favor. The preseason heart incident is very much a legitimate one, and derailed his chance of having a successful freshman year. Teams will be able to see that USC was just a bad situation even before he got back on the court. Teams will say, well, he was only a freshman. They could chalk up his poor outside shooting to a small sample.

If Bronny comes back for his sophomore year, the excuses will be gone. He’s going to have to average double-figures in scoring. He’ll have to shoot better from three. In more of a leadership position as an upperclassman, he’ll also have more responsibility for his team’s record.”

With all likelihood, Bronny will at least test the waters of the 2024 NBA Draft. The Lakers are indeed reportedly “willing to explore the notion” of adding Bronny, per The Athletic. He is still on “multiple” draft boards, via ESPN.

So if the Lakers or another team already feels comfortable with selecting Bronny now, even with his limitations, is there much of a difference if is in the second round?

It’s not like the James family desperately needs the money. Maybe, just as many had predicted before the season began, this long and winding road just leads to Bronny in Los Angeles on the Lakers after the 2024 NBA Draft.

No matter what, though, now is a perfect time to let him be his own person and follow his gut to do what is best for him.