UFC 301 odds: Alexandre Pantoja opens as sizeable favorite to defend title vs. Steve Erceg

Given the disparity in ranking, it should come as no surprise Alexandre Pantoja is heavily expected to retain flyweight gold against Steve Erceg in the recently announced UFC 301 headliner.

Pantoja (27-5 MMA, 11-3 UFC) will attempt to make a second consecutive defense of his 125-pound belt when he meets Erceg (12-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) at the May 4 event from Rio Arena in Rio de Janeiro (pay-per-view, ESPN2, ESPN+). The champion is fighting on home soil against a significantly less experienced challenger, and the betting odds reflect the advantages.

According to the opening UFC 301 odds from FanDuel, Pantoja is listed as a –280 betting favorite, meaning a $280 bet on him would yield a $100 return. Erceg comes back as a +210 underdog, meaning a $100 bet on the Australian would come with a $210 payout.

Pantoja, No. 1 in the latest USA TODAY Sports/MMA Junkie flyweight rankings, claimed the title with a split decision win over Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 in July. He registered his first defense with a unanimous decision win over Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December.

No. 14-ranked Erceg made his octagon debut in June and has since reeled off three consecutive wins, with the highlight on that stretch being a second-round knockout of Matt Schnell at UFC Fight Night 238 earlier this month.

The latest UFC 301 lineup includes:

• Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg – for flyweight title
• Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez
• Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig
• Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith
• Makhmud Muradov vs. Michel Pereira
• Drakkar Klose vs. Joaquim Silva
• Kevin Borjas vs. Alessandro Costa
• Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite
• Joanderson Brito vs. Jack Shore
• Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai
• William Gomis vs. Jean Silva
• Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 301.