Analyst Just Debunked Biggest Fear About Caleb Williams As A Passer

Justin Fields is gone. His three-year stint with the Chicago Bears will be remembered as a disappointment. Not all of it was his fault. The organization did a poor job building around him during that stint, never able to provide proper support or stability. That said, the quarterback didn’t help his case by showcasing serious issues as a passer. Among them was a bad tendency to hold the ball too long, inviting way too many hits and sacks. Much of this was brought on by fears he didn’t have the processing speed necessary to handle NFL defenses. Caleb Williams will be different.

That is what everybody wants to believe. However, the USC star suffers from a lot of the same criticism. His Time To Throw numbers, a stat that determines how long it takes a QB to throw the ball after the snap, is just as high as Fields’ was coming out of college. Some say the Bears are walking into the same situation as before. Robert Schmitz of Da Bears Blog is one of the most respected tape analysts out there. He chose to dig into this situation and came away with surprising results.

The truth about Williams doesn’t match the rumors.

The first clue that Caleb might not be your typical high to throw scrambler came when I found that, according to Pro Football Focus, Caleb has averaged well over 6 seconds per scramble throughout all three seasons of his college career, including a staggering 6.58 seconds per scramble this year. That seemed extraordinarily high, so I compared it to other QBs and found that he was consistently taking almost a full second longer on scrambles than almost any QB, even other high Time To Throw guys.

Why does this matter? Isn’t it a bad thing that he’s taking longer to scramble than any other QBs? You might think, but what I’ve found is that Caleb’s high overall TTT is most likely a mirage skewed entirely by how long his scrambles are, because compared to other QBs (and especially other high TTT QBs) Caleb doesn’t scramble to run often at all…

…Caleb’s high time to throw is not a product of a QB who frequently takes off at the first sign of trouble or one who runs before trouble even arrives. Compared to other high TTT passers he is remarkably patient, using his legs to buy time to make a throw. This tracks with the film, where you will consistently see him elude rushers while drifting behind the LOS until he can make a throw, only taking off to run as a last resort…

…For further reassurance, I looked at what percentage of Caleb’s dropbacks were excessively long, and found that over 41% of Caleb’s college dropbacks over his last two seasons were 2.5 seconds or shorter, while Fields at Ohio State managed that on just 36% and 35.2% of his dropbacks in his two seasons as a starter.

Caleb Williams plays the game far differently than Fields.

This is why sticking strictly to the numbers is so dangerous. Numbers lie. They can be easily manipulated. You must combine them with tape study to get an accurate picture of a player. The truth is, while Williams doesn’t hold the ball too long at times, it isn’t for the same reasons that Fields does. It isn’t because he struggles to read defenses or choose to take off running. Most of it comes from him scrambling to find throwing windows. He’s much more Fran Tarkenton than Michael Vick. One made the Hall of Fame and reached multiple Super Bowls. The other was a highlight reel who fizzled out by his early 30s.

It is clear Caleb Williams is very much a pass-first quarterback. When things get chaotic, he isn’t the type to lean on his legs to do the dirty work. His focus is always finding a way to make positive plays through the air. His hero ball tendencies last season weren’t out of habit. They were out of necessity. If Williams hadn’t done that, there is a strong probability USC would’ve had a losing record. The good news is the Bears likely won’t need him to play that style. He will have two excellent receivers in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. Not to mention a capable tight end in Cole Kmet.

This should allow him to learn how to play the position the right way.