UFC Vegas 89 predictions
Rose Namajunas’ unimpeachable work at strawweight has kept her ranked on the pound-for-pound list, but has she bitten off more than she can chew at flyweight?
“Thug Rose” didn’t make much of an impact in her 125-pound debut this past September, losing a unanimous decision to top contender Manon Fiorot. She gets a second chance to make a first impression in a new division when she takes on Amanda Ribas in the UFC Vegas 89 main event on Saturday.
This has all the makings of a bounce-back fight for Namajunas, but the dangerous Ribas can’t be counted out. While Ribas has lost to several top names, she’s also knocked off several ranked opponents at both flyweight and strawweight including Viviane Araujo, Virna Jandiroba, and Mackenzie Dern. If there’s anyone who can spoil Namajunas’ two-division championship plans, it’s Ribas.
Saturday’s main card also features plenty of recent Contender Series signings looking to make a name for themselves inside the octagon, including Karl Williams, AJ Dobson, Payton Talbott, Cameron Saaiman, and Luis Pajuelo.
What: UFC Vegas 89
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, March 23. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas
In her flyweight debut, Rose Namajunas wasn’t a fish out of water when it comes to skill. She displayed plenty of the attributes and tactics that helped her to excel at strawweight, specifically her accurate and creative striking. Were it not for her hand becoming a gnarled claw in Round 1, who knows how the bout could have played out differently?
There will be no excuses against Amanda Ribas, a fellow strawweight transplant who doesn’t have a significant size advantage over Namajunas. What she does bring to the party is a great ground game and a risk-taking mentality when it comes to hunting for finishes. She’ll be looking to make a statement and not just beat Namajunas on the scorecards.
Namajunas’ slick striking gives her the edge here, so she’ll have to stay offensive while making sure not to run into a Ribas power punch in the later rounds. If we get the Namajunas that out-struck Joanna Jedrzejczyk for 25 minutes, this should be an easy night for her. Still a few months shy of 32, Namajunas has plenty of quality performances left and I’m confident she delivers one this weekend.
Pick: Namajunas
Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa
It doesn’t matter which Tafa brother Karl Williams finds himself standing across from, he definitely shouldn’t stand and trade on fight night.
As Junior stepped in for Justin, so Justin has stepped in for Junior. The good news for Williams is that he shouldn’t have had to change much as far as fight prep as the Tafas are known for one thing: Keeping fights on the feet so that they can punch another human being as hard as possible.
Williams has just the style to negate Tafa and he’d be wise to keep things uncomplicated. The name of the game for Williams will be takedowns early, takedowns in the middle of the fight, and takedowns late. Really, just do everything in his power to plant Tafa on his back for 15 minutes. If he can, he wins; if he can’t, he sleeps.
Give me the wrestler in this one, via decision.
Pick: Williams
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson
Edmen Shahbazyan’s in-cage shortcomings are well-documented. On the feet, he’s as lethal as anyone in the middleweight division; on the ground, he’s a turtle on its shell. This matchup with AJ Dobson is a mixed bag in my eyes as far as how much it is geared towards Shahbazyan’s strengths.
Still just 26 years old and with some impressive highlights on his résumé already, Shahbazyan has at times looked the part of a contender. He should fare well against Dobson, whose slick kickboxing will likely give him the confidence to stand and trade with Shahbazyan, even though he shouldn’t. If Dobson has been looking to show off his wrestling, now is the time, because Shahbazyan has to prove that he’s not cooked if the fight goes to the ground for any prolonged stretch of time.
Dobson has solid top control, which is exactly the kind of skill that could torment Shahbazyan on fight night. My expectation is that the fight stays on the feet and Shahbazyan gets plenty of chances to show off his punching prowess. Otherwise, it could be back to the drawing board yet again for “The Golden Boy.”
Pick: Shahbazyan
Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman
Great work from the matchmakers here to pair up two of the bright young talents in the bantamweight division. Payton Talbott and Cameron Saaiman have plenty of fun fights ahead of them, and matching them up now gives us a chance to gauge not just where they’re currently at in their budding careers, but how far they can go over the next few years.
Talbott is da belle of da ball at the moment after showing great poise in his UFC debut. Just 7-0, the Nevada native has plenty of learning to do, but his physical gifts can take him a long way even as he learns on the fly. Watching Talbott, you can see him figuring out how to navigate unfamiliar situations in real time, which is how his UFC fights will play out for the foreseeable future. It’s neat.
His fellow Contender Series signing Saaiman caught a reality check and his first L this past October when he ran into the relentless (and badly overweight) Christian Rodriguez. The 23-year-old shouldn’t feel any shame in being outpaced by Rodriguez; in fact, I’m confident that the loss caused Saaiman to take a major leap forward in his development.
It comes down to experience for me and the level of competition that Saaiman has faced gives him the edge against Talbott. The best days are ahead for both, but I’m picking Saaiman to win what could be the first chapter of a future rivalry.
Pick: Saaiman
Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal
Welcome back to the UFC, Youssef Zalal!
“The Moroccan Devil” had an up-and-down first run with the promotion, zooming to a 3-0 start before going winless in four straight and heading back to the regional scene. He bounced back with three first-round finishes in Colorado and now he’s stepping in on less than two weeks’ notice for Gabriel Miranda to take on Billy Quarantillo. Admittedly, it’s difficult to tell how much Zalal has improved based on his domination of overmatched opposition, but he was a high-level fighter to begin with and has little to lose here.
That makes Zalal as dangerous as it gets for Quarantillo. “Billy Q” is still searching for the form that had him knocking on the door of a ranking when he first burst onto the UFC scene. He’s fought alternated wins and losses in his past six fights and the well-rounded Zalal could easily keep that trend going. It would benefit Quarantillo to push the pace, limiting Zalal’s opportunities to re-acclimate himself. Billy has to be a bully, is what I’m saying.
This is such a trap game for Quarantillo, so even though I’m picking him to win a decision, I do so with shaky confidence.
Pick: Quarantillo
Fernando Padilla vs. Luis Pajuelo
Luis Pajuelo is one mean son of a gun.
The dude just throws everything with the intention to hurt, which isn’t always the case in this business where there’s a hundred ways to win (and lose) a fight. It’s definitely true for Pajuelo though. Whether he’s working from striking range, pushing his opponent to the fence, or executing ground-and-pound, everything Pajuelo does is with the intention to finish. That makes him an ideal option to open any main card.
Fernando Padilla is typically more measured in his approach and while he’s suffered his share of disappointing losses, no one has managed to put him away inside the distance. He has long arms that give him a massive reach advantage over Pajuelo, so I’m interested to see how the shorter Pajuelo finds opportunities to do damage. Padilla could win this one with a conservative game plan.
I think that’s how Padilla approaches this after his disappointing performance against Kyle Nelson this past September. That matchup was supposed to be a triumphant homecoming for the proud Mexican fighter, but maybe the moment was too big for him. A trip to the considerably less daunting UFC APEX could be just what he needs to bounce back.
Padilla outworks Pajuelo en route to a decision win.
Pick: Padilla
Preliminaries
Kurt Holobaugh def. Trey Ogden
Ricardo Ramos def. Julian Erosa
Miles Johns def. Cody Gibson
Steven Nguyen def. Jarno Errens
Darya Zheleznyakova def. Montserrat Rendon
Andre Lima def. Igor Severino