Kurtenbach: The Warriors are surging toward a best-case scenario

There’s only so much excitement a team destined for the NBA’s play-in tournament can deserve.

But right now, the Warriors deserve all of it.

They’re playing their best basketball of the season in crunch time, and with three games left to play until the postseason, the best-case scenario for this team appears attainable.

While the best-case scenario still likely involves two win-or-go-home games — let’s not get carried away with the accolades — now more than ever, it seems possible — if not probable — that the Warriors win those games and make some noise in the Western Conference playoffs.

Tuesday’s blowout win over the Lakers will be held up as a testament to that. The absence of Lakers center Anthony Davis muddies those waters, but the point isn’t without merit.

Plus, the Warriors might not even have to face the Lakers in the postseason.

Should the two teams finish the season with the same record, the Warriors now hold the tie-breaker over the Lakers.

And if the Warriors go 3-0 to finish (at Portland, vs. New Orleans, vs. Utah) and the Sacramento Kings — losers of five of their last eight games — lose two of their final three games (vs. New Orleans, Phoenix, Portland), the Warriors can jump to the No. 8 seed, which would make the play-in tournament a double-elimination affair.

It would also set up a series with the No. 2 seed in the West, which is likely to be determined in Wednesday’s game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.

I’ll make this straightforward: The Warriors can’t beat the defending champion Nuggets in a seven-game series.

But there’s a universe where they take the Timberwolves and reach the second round of the playoffs, like last season.

Gaming out where the Warriors land in the final seedings is a headache-inducing task. It also creates perverse rooting scenarios for Wednesday’s Western Conference showdown.

Are the Warriors betting on themselves? Then go Nuggets.

Do they expect to play two Play-In Tournament games? Then go Timberwolves.

What a mess.

“We need a little help, obviously,” Steve Kerr said. “Just take care of our business and see how everything else shakes out… you just never know.”

Playoffstatus.com says that if the Warriors do win out, they have a 51 percent chance of taking the No. 8 seed.

Slightly better than even — what a perfect encapsulation of this season.

It’s notable, if not downright incredible after six months, that with a hot stretch of play, anchored around Draymond Green on defense (and, apparently, on Tuesday night, on offense, too) and the resurgent play of Klay Thompson, this Warriors team that had to fight so hard to simply make the postseason could find itself in a scenario where it’s one-and-done in the play-in tournament, but in a good way. A win in the 7-vs.-8 game advances a team directly to a first-round series.

Even if luck doesn’t go the Warriors’ way (or they lose a game), a No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup in the PIT will likely be at Chase Center.

Say what you will about the Dubs and their home record this season, but if you have to win one game to continue your season, you’d prefer to sleep in your own bed the night before and have your own fans cheering you on during that contest.

It’s not Oracle Arena, but Chase Center is still a brutal place to play for opposing teams in big games.

If nothing else, team CEO Joe Lacob will appreciate the extra gate revenue — this is the most expensive team in NBA history, after all.

But that stuff will sort itself out by Sunday night.

In the meantime, there’s no doubt that this veteran-led team is turning it up at just the right time.

Over the last 10 games, the Warriors have the No. 6 defensive rating (108 points per 100 possessions) and the No. 6 net rating (plus-9 points per 100 possessions) in the league.

It’s not championship-quality play, but it’s enough to get close to one, even in a loaded Western Conference.

These Warriors are adamant that this year’s team is better than last’s. The Warriors’ issue is that the West improved, too, leaving them in the PIT.

But it also leaves them as a team with something to prove. These Warriors — four-time champions who have lost one Western Conference playoff series in a decade, will somehow go into this postseason playing the role of a plucky underdog.

And it must be noted that the last two times no one expected much from the Warriors in the playoffs — 2015 and 2022 — the Dubs ended the season with a win and a trophy.