UFC 303 Gambling Preview: Will Alex Pereira continue to impress in Jiri Prochazka rematch?

Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka are set to run things back.

This Saturday, in the main event of UFC 303 in Las Vegas, Pereira and Prochazka rematch their 2023 light heavyweight title fight that took place at UFC 295. On top of that, we have 12 other marquee matchups taking place on the International Fight Week event, so let’s take a look at the best bets for this weekend.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Michael “Venom” Page (+130)

In the main card opener this weekend, Page takes on a Ian Machado Garry in a battle of old guard vs. new generation, with serious divisional stakes.

There are many people out there who are not impressed with “MVP” as a fighter because a vast majority of his career was spent crushing cans and outmatched opposition. I’m not one of them. Yes, Page has very few good wins on his résumé, but I’ve also watched him fight, and basically no one has beaten him in a striking battle. (Douglas Lima knocked him out in really weird — albeit impressive — fashion.) Garry talks a big game about his grappling abilities, but we haven’t seen much of it and Page is a hard guy to take down. This feels like Page is going to get the fight he wants, and when he does, he almost never loses those.

Mayra Bueno Silva (-105)

Go ahead and place a bet on Macy Chiasson because I’m about to give this fight the touch of death: I don’t understand this line.

At the start of 2024, “MBS” was the odds-on favorite to become the new women’s bantamweight champion, and hopefully steward a new era for the division after Amanda Nunes’s retirement. Now she’s a pick’em with Chiasson? What happened?

Sure, MBS lost a listless decision to Raquel Pennington, but you know who else lost to Pennington? Chiasson! She missed weight and still got tapped out! Sure, it’s possible Chiasson grinds out a boring win with wrestling, but MBS is the more dynamic fighter and should be the clear favorite in this matchup.

Prop Bets

Alex Pereira To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

I wrote a full breakdown of this matchup for SBNation, but the short version is this: These two fought ~eight months ago and it didn’t go so hot for Prochazka. His style of striking opens himself up to have his leg chewed off by Pereira’s low kicks and his reckless abandon on the feet also opens him up to counters. If Prochazka fights really smart, he still might lose, and it seems he’s not going to even do that. So I’m expecting history to repeat itself.

Diego Lopes To Win By Decision (+400)

Here’s the thing: Brian Ortega hates defense. The man simply has no interest in it. He refuses to ever protect himself, relying instead on his otherworldly toughness. Which, you know, kinda works, until it doesn’t. Truth be told, Lopes isn’t much better in this regard, but he is bigger, younger, faster, and has a more advanced game than Ortega does. Maybe Ortega can simply out-wrestle Lopes and has good enough defense to win decision that way, but Lopes is so dynamic on the floor that I don’t think it’s likely. Lopes is simply a younger, better version of Ortega, and so he should win this fight, but it won’t be a finish because Ortega cannot be killed.

Parlay of the Week

This parlay is a bit of a cop out but hey, gimmicks gonna gimmick. This weekend see’s two of my favorite prospects from the most recent season of Contender Series return to the cage, and so we’re going to parlay up these two Big Paws On A Puppy guys.

Payton Talbott (-1600)

Talbott is the biggest favorite on the card and one of the biggest in recent memory. Truth be told, it’s probably too much for a young man in only his ninth professional fight, but whatever. Talbott is a stud and he’s going to win. This is a kid who probably fights for a belt one day. Yanis Ghemmouri is in trouble.

Jean Silva (-102)

Silva misses weight for his fight with Charles Jourdain, which is always a bit concerning, but I still like his chances on Saturday. For one, missing weight in 2024 has not been much of an indicator for success or failure. For another, I like the matchup. Silva can compete with Jourdain comfortably on the feet and has the option to mix things up with his grappling as well. Plus, Big Paws prospects are 9-1 in the UFC, with that lone loss being Carli Judice, who many (myself included) felt should have won her decision. Ride the hot hand.

Parlay these two bets together for +110 odds.

Wrap Up

You have to love a pay-per-view fight week. Plus we have a week off after this one, so let’s settle in and enjoy.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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