'Putin would like to test NATO': Lithuania wants US troops to counter a potential Russian troop build-up

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Washington (AFP) - Lithuania's defense minister on Wednesday warned that a Russian military exercise later this year may serve as cover for an aggressive troop buildup on NATO's eastern flank.

Raimundas Karoblis is in Washington to lobby US officials and lawmakers for support as the exposed Baltic states modernize their defenses to deter Kremlin interference.

In an interview with AFP, he said he was grateful for and confident in US support for NATO, despite President Donald Trump's recent criticism of the alliance.

But he made it clear he would like to see a permanent US troop presence on Lithuanian soil as a "multiplying presence for deterrence" alongside European allies.

"Europe needs the presence and leadership of the United States as a defense system, but on the other hand we believe that the United States need allies also," Karoblis said.

Trump alarmed European capitals during his campaign by deriding NATO as obsolete and demanding that US allies take on a greater share of spending on mutual defense.

© dpa/AFP/File Armin Weigel

Since he came to office in January, his senior aides have repeatedly attempted to reassure the allies that Washington will honor its treaty commitments.

But again last month at the NATO summit, Trump failed to publicly reaffirm Article 5 of the alliance's treaty, which states that an attack on one ally is an attack on all.

Karoblis, who recently hosted US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in his homeland close to the Belarus border, said he remained positive about Washington's commitment to NATO.  

"It's not obsolete, definitely," he said. "That was said only once, by the way, during the campaign. But NATO needs changes, that is clear to us also."

US Marine Corps/Sgt. Paul Peterson

Karoblis said Trump had been right to demand that European allies increase their defense spending towards the agreed target of two percent of their GDP.

His own country, he reported, has more than doubled its spending over two years to 1.8 percent of national output, and will hit the target next.

But he was clear that greater European commitment can never replace the United States' role in the alliance it dominates — particularly when it comes to Russia.

"Russia has more tanks on the Ukrainian border than Britain and Germany have altogether," he warned.

Lithuania and its Baltic neighbors Latvia and Estonia have had tense relations with Russia since they won their freedom in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Huge exercise 

Fears have increased in recent years after President Vladimir Putin deployed Russian troops, agents and proxy forces to seize chunks of Georgia and Ukraine.

Reuters/Baz Ratner

The Baltics worry they may be next to face pressure from the Kremlin, perhaps in the wake of September's "Zapad 2017" — a huge Russian military exercise.

"Putin would like to test NATO ... and probably the best area for him to test is the Baltics," the minister told AFP  at Washington's Army and Navy Club.

Karoblis said his government estimates that 100,000 Russian troops will be involved in the exercise, deployed in Lithuania's southern neighbor Belarus.

The exercise itself will be intimidating for Belarus' southern neighbor Ukraine, which has already lost Crimea to Russian occupation and part of its east to rebellion.

But Vilnius is concerned that Putin will leave many of the soldiers behind after the operation, to effectively position a new force right on NATO's flank.

© AFP Petras Malukas

From Belarus, only the 50-mile (80-kilometer) "Suwalki Gap" along the Polish-Lithuanian border separates these forces from Russia's Kaliningrad enclave.

Any Russian overt or covert incursion to close the gap could encircle the Baltic states by land — and Kaliningrad's missile batteries could harass shipping.

NATO has responded. There is now a 1,000-strong German-led multinational battle group in Lithuania, a similar British-led unit in Estonia and Canadians in Latvia.

But American forces deploy in the Baltic states on a rotational basis, operating out of Poland and conducting training and exercises across the region.

Mattis was clear last month that Washington will step up its involvement in the event of Russian provocation — but Vilnius would still like to see a permanent force.

"We Lithuanians can't imagine security without the support and guarantees from the US side," Karoblis said.

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