The South China Sea is Not Beijing's Next Battlefield

Ian Easton

Security, Asia

Think Taiwan instead. 

No one likes to admit they made a mistake, especially in Washington.  But what if America's top strategic thinkers have gotten China's military buildup all wrong?

The definition of military deception is “actions executed to deliberately mislead adversary decision makers...thereby causing the adversary to take specific actions (or inactions) that will contribute to the accomplishment of the mission.” Could Beijing be using the South China Sea to this end?  By creating a constant stream of provocations in an area it cares relatively little about, China has diverted attention from an area it cares a lot about. This could be leading the Pentagon toward bad planning assumptions and investments. 

The South China Sea Pivot:

Since at least 2011 many of America's leading thinkers have become convinced that the South China Sea will dominate military and security affairs in the 21st century. It is the new battleground, the Fulda Gap with Asian characteristics. China's South Sea Fleet is the new Soviet 8th Guards Army. Or so many have come to believe.