Why Syria Won't Save U.S.-Russia Relations

Paul J. Saunders

Politics, Eurasia

A bit of success in the war-torn country does not beget success in other areas.

Many of those who seek a more functional U.S.-Russia relationship—in both Washington and Moscow—have hoped that cooperation in stabilizing Syria and combating the so-called Islamic State could provide an important new opportunity to stabilize U.S.-Russia ties as well. Unfortunately, this is likely to be considerably more difficult than some may expect. And even the optimists recognize that rebuilding U.S.-Russia relations will be quite challenging.

The view that working together on Syria could help elsewhere derives from traditional thinking about international diplomacy. From this perspective, success in implementing the partial and tentative “cessation of hostilities” in Syria could help to restore communication and even a degree of mutual trust between the United States and Russia, facilitating efforts to tackle bigger problems, including sharp differences over Ukraine.

At the same time, some believe that a success in Syria would demonstrate that the two countries can work together to address serious international problems despite their other differences. This latter view is probably more widely held among Moscow’s foreign policy elite, where engagement with the United States validates Russian aspirations for an acknowledged role as a major power. Recognizing the asymmetries between America’s and Russia’s economies and militaries, U.S. elites are thus far not similarly tempted. It is notable that the thin slice of American experts focused on nuclear weapons—perhaps the area of greatest symmetry and one of great consequence—has been among the most motivated to engage with Moscow.