Bosnia as a Model for Securing Syria

Edward P. Joseph, Michael O'Hanlon

Politics, Middle East

A modified version of what followed the Dayton Accords is the only path forward.

Strangely, as a very shaky and probably temporary cessation of hostilities begins in parts of Syria, the idea of restoring a strong unified Syrian state remains official American policy. State Department spokesman John Kirby went so far as to argue that the cessation agreement actually reduces the chances of the country’s eventual partition, whether de jure or de facto.

In a conflict that has killed at least three hundred thousand; displaced twelve million, of whom four million are refugees in foreign lands; created the greatest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II; inflamed Sunni-Shia passions across the Middle East; and created sanctuaries for ISIS as well as the Nusra Front, such a goal seems unrealistic. It also seems unnecessary, and almost romantic—somehow the ideal of a nonsectarian centrally run state must be preserved, even as far more basic human needs are trampled by this terrible war. With virtually all Sunnis in Syria and throughout the Middle East adamantly opposed to the continued rule of an Alawite leader with so much blood on his hands, all while President Bashar al-Assad is unwilling to step down, emboldened by Russian aid and recent battlefield victories, the basic ingredients for a stable and unified country are wantonly lacking. The current ceasefire cannot last.