Drafting a first-round linebacker would be a puzzling pick for Vikings

The Vikings spent two premium draft picks on linebackers the past two years, grabbing Anthony Barr in the 2014 first round and Eric Kendricks in the second round last year. But a handful of national analysts are projecting the Vikings to draft another linebacker with the 23rd pick, and some of the fans in my Twitter mentions are excited about that possibility.

From this reporter’s perspective, a linebacker would be a puzzling pick.

Sure, fan favorite Chad Greenway is 33 and will only play one more season before hanging it up. So the Vikings could be in need of a replacement at weak-side linebacker when the 2017 offseason rolls around.

And yes, injuries happen, as evidenced by both Barr and Kendricks missing a chunk of the 2015 season, forcing Greenway to take on a bigger role.

But if all goes as planned this season (and also in 2017 and 2018), Barr and Kendricks will avoid significant injuries and be every-down defenders as the two linebackers in coach Mike Zimmer’s vast nickel package.

That means the third “starter” at linebacker, whether it is Greenway or the potential first-rounder, will only play about a third of the snaps.

In 2015, the Vikings used their 4-3 base defense about 35 percent of the time. And unless Zimmer plans to combat three-receiver sets with his base defense, that number will likely continue to decrease going forward.

So in terms of usage, drafting another linebacker in the first round would be like drafting a backup tight end or a third defensive tackle.

I know what some of you are thinking right now: just draft the best player available. But it usually doesn’t go down that way in Round One. For example, the Vikings under GM Rick Spielman have attacked needs in the first round with picks like Barr, left tackle Matt Kalil, cornerbacks Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

For what it’s worth, the Vikings have done their due diligence on a pair of potential first-round linebackers, hosting Ohio State’s Darron Lee and Alabama’s Reggie Ragland on official visits at Winter Park.

But unless the Vikings think one of those guys is going to be a star, it makes more sense for them to stick with what they’ve got — Greenway, Emmanuel Lamur, Brandon Watts, Audie Cole, etc. — at the weak-side spot in 2016 and maybe add another linebacker in the later rounds.