Dry La Niña period likely to follow El Niño

[...] the wet and welcome respite after four years of drought may be short-lived, federal climate experts said Thursday. The forecast comes as California water officials face pressure to lift statewide conservation rules that have ushered in an era of brown lawns, unwashed cars and shorter showers. The monthly climate outlook released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects that most of California will remain in drought over the next several months. While El Niño represents a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and is associated with jolts in global weather that often bring more rain and snow to California, La Niña is marked by cool equatorial waters and has virtually the opposite effect on weather. According to Golden Gate Weather Services, 19 of the 20 La Niñas since 1950 have correlated with below-average rain on the state’s southern coast. NOAA scientists said this week they don’t know exactly what La Niña will mean for California this year because it’s too early to tell and because the pattern isn’t a perfect forecasting tool. Each represents the opposite phase of fluctuating ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific. “The earlier snowmelt raises concerns for water resources,” said Nina Oakley, a climatologist with NOAA’s Western Regional Climate Center. With many reservoirs now benefiting from snow runoff, dozens of water managers from across the state packed a meeting of the State Water Resources Control Board on Wednesday to call for less stringent conservation rules. NOAA’s climate forecast this week shows drought conditions receding in coastal areas north of San Francisco while the rest of the state remains entrenched in drought — as it will at least through July. State Water Board Chair Felicia Marcus said regulators will consider the request to relax the rules, though she remained reluctant to act too soon.