Will Trump, like Reagan and Bush, Walk Back His Approach to Taiwan?

Raymond Kuo

Security, Asia

A genuine change in policy requires the long-term, persistent and dedicated application of power.

Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen broke decades of diplomatic protocol and raised hopes of a new, pro-Taipei shift in American strategy. As a Taiwanese-American and supporter of democracy, the conversation filled me and others with expectation. Gordan Chang proclaimed that the call “changed everything,” putting U.S.-China relations “on an entirely new footing.” Gerrit van der Wees said the call was “signaling a broader change in U.S. policy towards Taiwan.” (Full disclosure: Gerrit van der Wees is my uncle. Fuller disclosure: Christmas is about to become really awkward this year.)

As a foreign policy professional, however, the call filled me with fear. The fundamental realities of power and policy between China and the United States have not changed, and they will not change once Trump assumes office. Washington still needs Beijing’s cooperation on issues ranging from nuclear non-proliferation, trade, climate change and global economic management, to say nothing of international hotspots like North Korea, the South China Sea and Iran.

So that leaves us with two possibilities, both of which are worrying. Either Trump just doesn’t know what he’s doing, and he’s blithely disrupting international politics out of ignorance. His anti-China tweets this weekend doubled down on his initial mistake, suggesting he lacks the temperament to walk back a self-inflicted wound. Vice President-elect Mike Pence dismissed the call as a simple “courtesy,” suggesting he too doesn’t appreciate the nuance and challenge of international politics.

Or the call actually does signal a broader shift in policy, but one developed without input from foreign policy professionals as the State Department (who have had great difficulty contacting even Trump’s transition team) and by a man who has suspended national security briefings to go on a victory tour.