Deal with Russia, But Don't Be Too Eager

Daniel Treisman

Politics, Eurasia

Trump’s eagerness to meet with Putin put Moscow in the driver’s seat.

Editor’s Note: The following is part of a multi-part symposium commissioned by the National Interest and Carnegie Corporation of New York. We asked some of the world’s leading experts about the future of U.S.-Russia relations under President-elect Donald Trump. You can find all of their answers here.

In negotiating with Russia, the first thing President Trump will need to do is lower expectations. His statements during the campaign have left him with a remarkably weak initial bargaining position. Talleyrand told junior diplomats, “Don’t be too eager!” Trump’s public eagerness to meet with Putin and his promises to quickly strike a deal put the Russian leader in the driver’s seat.

On top of that, Trump has already done more to weaken the credibility of NATO—a key Kremlin goal—than years of Russian covert operations. However welcome such behavior may be to Putin, he will have formed a view of Trump as a neophyte, another Berlusconi, someone to befriend, exploit and possibly blackmail later with compromising information collected by his spy agencies. So a first step will have to be to row back, disavow past statements and reestablish some leverage.