Tropical Depression Expected to Form in Gulf Today or Tomorrow, Impacts Possible for Acadiana

Advisories are being issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a rapidly developing tropical system from the broad area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf. This area could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane with winds at 85 mph before landfall on Saturday.  All of Louisiana is within the cone of uncertainty but it is rather large showing that the forecast path is still difficult to pinpoint.  A westerly track will bring significantly higher impacts to Acadiana including heavy rains, hurricane force winds, and a coastal storm surge threat.  Confidence of this forecast is low as models continue to have a widespread thinking of scenarios. 

Models are in agreement of a westerly track in the coming days along with more organization and strengthening but become more uncertain with where the northerly turn will occur. Tropical Storm Barry is likely by Friday or Saturday.

Unfortunately, the models overnight have trended back to the west which could bring more significant impacts to Acadiana. The European model continues to showcase areas receiving 15-25″ inches of rain from this disturbance. The more westerly track could bring that threat into Acadiana.

The GFS has a system making landfall across the eastern parts of the state. We are still waiting on more tropical models to come into play once we have a developed system. A shift 50 to 60 miles either way could make a very big difference with impacts across Acadiana, so we will have a better idea about those later this week.

If the system stays east of us, impacts will be minimal but it will all be dependent on the track of this system which is almost impossible to forecast accurately at this time. Landfall will be sometime Saturday. Stay tuned for the rest of the week on the latest with this potential tropical system.

Now is a good time to download the new KLFY Weather App.

If you have an Android phone, you can download it at the Google store by clicking here.

If you have an Apple phone, can you download it at the Apple Store by clicking here.

Stay tuned!