First Warning: Why intense Gulf of Mexico hurricanes may be more likely this year
In our week-long "Summer Outlook" series, we have identified several factors that could tilt our odds toward a hotter, drier than normal summer. But there is one variable that could bring significant summer rain to Central Texas.
(KXAN) — In our week-long "Summer Outlook" series, we have identified several factors that could tilt our odds toward a hotter, drier than normal summer. But there is one variable that could bring significant summer rain to Central Texas.
Colorado State University forecasters are expecting the seventh consecutive busier than normal Atlantic hurricane season, potentially bringing 19 tropical storms and nine hurricanes. These predictions could rise even higher within the next month.
But an even more specific factor could lead to intense hurricanes close to Texas this year — the Loop Current.
Dr. Jeff Masters is known around the world for his climate change and hurricane research.
“The western Caribbean has some of the warmest waters anywhere in the entire Atlantic," Dr. Masters said. “The Loop Current is a warm water current that carries water from the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, it can act as a source of very warm and quite deep water to help power rapid intensification of hurricanes."
More on KXAN’s Summer Outlook series
- Dropping lake levels could mean water restrictions soon
- What will rare third consecutive year of La Niña mean for our summer weather?
- Does a hot, dry May guarantee a hot summer?
- What to expect with drought status, wildfire threat
Dr. Masters wrote this week about a unique Loop Current phenomenon he expects to happen this summer that has fostered devastating hurricanes in the past. Chief Meteorologist David Yeomans spoke with him about it.
"If you look at the top 20 list of most expensive weather disasters in world history, four of them have been hurricanes that have rapidly intensified when they encountered a portion of the Loop Current which broke off into a clockwise-spinning eddy," Dr. Masters said. "When that eddy intersects with the course of a hurricane, the hurricane can suck heat energy right out of [it]."
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Harvey and Ida all rapidly intensified after passing over one of these Loop Current eddies in the Gulf of Mexico.
It is important to note, however, that the mere presence of near-record warm water in the Gulf this year does not guarantee that a storm will cross over it.
“The tracks of the hurricanes this year could be completely different,” Dr. Masters said.
Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.
It is important to note that the background of a warming climate is already predisposing us toward hotter temperatures in any given summer.
Austin’s average summer temperature has risen nearly 4° since 1970. That can be the difference between a 98° day and a 102° day.
The warming we have recorded in Austin is some of the most intense summer warming anywhere in the U.S. This is leading to longer stretches of back-to-back 100° days each summer -- something that used to be more rare.