Insight: What kind of raise should you expect in 2023

AUSTIN (KXAN) — New numbers show worker's raise expectations were off from what employers planned to pay out.

KXAN's Tom Miller talked with the Austin Business Journal's Will Anderson about how much you can expect.

Read a transcription of the discussion below or use the video player above to watch.

Tom: Let's start with a look back. How big have raises been in years past and what's been driving that?

Anderson: Yeah, with more jobs out there open than there are people looking for work... and employment has been quite low. Raises have been at historical numbers for the past few years and hit about 6.7% late last year, year over year increase in salary.

Tom: This year, people are expecting more big raises again, but it might be different. Why is that?

Anderson: Yeah, I think there's a gap between what people are experiencing--obviously higher inflation, higher grocery costs, and employers now who are looking forward to perhaps some economic turbulence in the near future. So, the forecast now is for not, not quite as high raises this year, which could be just joining for some people.

Tom: Specifically in Austin, you looked at some of our numbers here. We're major tech hubs and big-time companies. Can we expect different raises from the national averages?

Anderson: You know, I think we'll fit pretty much in line. If you look at the federal data, wages are up about 1%. Year over year, weekly wages are up about 1% year over year in March, which is behind Houston behind Dallas, close to San Antonio. That's because it already grew so much. So you're already seeing some cooling happening. And the forecast is... it's not going to improve much in the future.

Tom: How about if you are about to negotiate a raise? You're interested in making more money? Do you have some advice for what to say to your boss?

Anderson: Well, some of the best advice that I've heard from experts is kind of leave the macroeconomic stuff at the door. Yes, we know inflation is higher. We know prices for a lot of things are higher. But that's not going to affect your manager as much as talking about accomplishments you've made in the past year, things you've brought to your team or how you've improved the business.