Prop. 1: Where are voters favoring Newsom’s tightly contested mental health measure?

Initial results showed the measure on life support as conservative rural counties roundly rejected the proposal.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s $6.4 billion plan to bring thousands of homeless people off the streets and into treatment appeared to be on life support Wednesday as conservative voters in rural counties roundly rejected the mental health ballot measure that had seemed to enjoy strong support heading into Election Day.

Votes in favor of the measure hovered just over 50% as mail-in ballots were still being counted. It needs a simple majority to pass.

“There were warning signs in the polls, but this was still a surprise,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “As concerned about homelessness as voters remain, they remain skeptical about spending to address it.”

If approved, Proposition 1 would authorize bonds for an estimated 11,500 new treatment beds and homeless housing units. The two-part measure would also use money already in the mental health system to expand intensive care programs and build supportive housing. It would do both without raising taxes. According to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office, it would cost the state about $310 million annually over 30 years to repay the bonds.

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, a February poll by the Public Policy Institute of California indicated 59% of likely voters supported Prop 1. That was a steep drop-off from the 68% support the nonpartisan research group found in December. Historically, ballot measures tend to lose support heading into Election Day, often as opponents get more aggressive in their messaging.

Another factor working against Prop 1: It came during a low-turnout primary election, meaning a higher share of older and less diverse voters who tend to be wary of big-ticket spending measures cast ballots — especially this year as the state faces a budget shortfall in the tens of billions of dollars.

Still, early returns showed most densely populated coastal counties — including almost the entire Bay Area — backed Proposition 1 by clear majorities, though support was generally lower than the polling indicated. In San Francisco, where street homelessness has posed a particularly intractable problem, early returns showed more than two-thirds of voters supporting the proposition.

Meanwhile, nearly all inland counties, which tend to be more politically conservative, opposed the measure, some by significant margins. “This is a Republican and anti-tax vote more than anything,” Kousser said.

For example, initial results showed that Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa counties supported the measure by between 55% and 60%. San Bernardino and Fresno counties, two of the largest in the inland Central Valley, rejected it by 54.5% and 56%, respectively.

On the coast, San Diego and Orange counties, which both skew politically moderate, opposed the measure by just over 50% and almost 58%, respectively. Farther north, the race was tight in Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties.

Political experts said the rural-coastal divide reflects long-term trends as the country has become more polarized. But they added the measure’s underperformance statewide was still somewhat surprising given the relative lack of opposition — though some conservative lawmakers and disability rights advocates raised concerns about increased spending and more involuntary mental health detentions.

In fact, many Republicans even supported the measure, including state legislators and the mayors of Stockton, Fresno and Bakersfield. The Prop 1 campaign also far outspent opponents, raising millions of dollars to fund television ads showing the governor imploring voters to pass the measure, dubbed “Treatment not Tents.” The “no” campaign raised just $1,000, according to election filings.

But with many California residents in an ornery mood about the state’s direction, it appears Newsom’s backing could have been a liability.

“This campaign centered around the governor,” said Mark Baldassare, a pollster with the public policy institute. “And the governor’s approval rating was 48% in our poll.”

Failing to pass the measure could be embarrassing for Newsom politically, but it would also prove a setback for his broader effort to overhaul the state’s mental health system through other new policies to compel more homeless people with severe psychiatric conditions into treatment.

Despite unprecedented billions of dollars spent in recent years to curb homelessness, the state has an estimated 181,000 unhoused residents. However, experts say only a small fraction are so mentally ill that they’re unable to care for their most basic needs.

With many thousands of mail-in ballots still left to be counted, the measure’s outlook could dim as results continue to trickle in, said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at the University of Southern California and UC Berkeley.

“If the election is close, that’s bad news for the ‘yes’ side,” Schnur said. “Older voters and voters in outlying areas tend to vote more heavily by mail than the rest of the electorate.”