Pac-12 MBB power ratings: Arizona clinches but wobbles as No. 1 seed status turns murky
The Pac-12's collective weakness means Arizona won't have many chances to collect Quadrant I wins in the conference tournament.
Arizona wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 tournament on Thursday night at UCLA but lost its grip on a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday night at USC.
As a result of their double-digit loss in the Galen Center, the Wildcats relinquished ground to Tennessee and North Carolina in pursuit of the final spot on the top seed line in March Madness. (Purdue, Houston and Connecticut have the other three locked up.)
But the substandard showing is only half of Arizona’s problem.
The other half is what comes next: The Pac-12 tournament, which begins Thursday in Las Vegas for the Wildcats and does not ooze opportunities to reclaim lost territory.
In fact, the bracket couldn’t have broken worse for the Wildcats.
Based on the NET rankings released Sunday morning, Washington State and Colorado will offer Arizona the only opportunities to collect Quadrant I wins in T Mobile Arena. No other teams in the conference carry a top-50 NET ranking, a requirement for neutral-court matchups to qualify as Quad I results.
But the No. 2 seed Cougars and No. 3 seed Buffaloes are grouped together — Arizona can play either WSU or Colorado (in the championship) but not both.
As a result, the Wildcats have just one Quad I matchup before the selection committee finalizes the March Madness field next weekend.
Their competitors for that last No. 1 seed in the NCAAs have more fruitful paths.
The ACC bracket gives North Carolina two opportunities for Quad I wins, in the semifinals and finals, while the SEC bracket affords Tennessee three chances.
Currently, Arizona has eight Quad I wins, one more than Tennessee and North Carolina.
By the close of conference championships, that slim, potentially significant edge could vanish altogether — along with the last remnants of Arizona’s case for a No. 1 seed.
To the power ratings …
1. Arizona (24-7/15-5)
Last week: 1
Results: won at UCLA 88-65, lost at USC 78-65
NET ranking: No. 4
Next up: vs. Washington or USC (Thursday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: Another resume morsel to monitor: The Wildcats have a Quad III loss (at Oregon State); Tennessee and North Carolina do not.
2. Colorado (22-9/13-7)
Last week: 4
Results: won at Oregon 79-75 and Oregon State 73-57
NET ranking: No. 28
Next up: vs. Utah or ASU (Thursday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: No team in the conference is playing better than CU, which has won six in a row and climbed back onto the NCAA Tournament bubble.
3. Washington State (23-8/14-6)
Last week: 2
Results: lost to Washington 74-68
NET ranking: No. 45
Next up: vs. Cal or Stanford (Thursday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: You could make the case that losing to UW might benefit the Cougars by eliminating any chance of complacency in advance of the Pac-12 tournament. We would not make that case, however.
4. Oregon (20-11/12-8)
Last week: 3
Results: lost to Colorado 79-75, beat Utah 66-65
NET ranking: No. 68
Next up: vs. UCLA or Oregon State (Thursday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: A narrow home victory over a team that just lost at Oregon State — and has just one road win in conference play — is not much of a victory. This was a lost weekend for the Ducks even though they can claim a split.
5. UCLA (15-16/10-10)
Last week: 7
Results: lost to Arizona 88-65, beat ASU 59-47
NET ranking: No. 115
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: Our evaluation of the Bruins’ opening-round affair in Las Vegas led to a speedy conclusion: First team to 50 wins.
6. Cal (13-18/9-11)
Last week: 6
Results: lost at Stanford 80-58
NET ranking: No. 122
Next up: vs. Stanford (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: Obviously, the Bears’ substandard performance Thursday night was an attempt to lull Stanford into a false sense of security ahead of the Las Vegas matchup. Smart strategy by coach Mark Madsen. Very smart.
7. Washington (17-14/9-11)
Last week: 8
Results: won at WSU 74-68
NET ranking: No. 67
Next up: vs. USC (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: What a story it would be if the Huskies rolled to the Pac-12 title (and an NCAA Tournament bid) with Mike Hopkins as a lame duck coach. And that type of story is categorized as fantasy.
8. USC (14-17/8-12)
Last week: 10
Results: beat ASU 81-73 and Arizona 78-65
NET ranking: No. 90
Next up: vs. Washington (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: The team nobody should want to play — the Trojans have won four of their last five — landed in the same half of the bracket as Arizona, Oregon and UCLA.
9. Utah (18-13/9-11)
Last week: 5
Results: lost at Oregon State 92-85 and Oregon 66-65
NET ranking: No. 52
Next up: vs. Arizona State (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: An absolute clunker of a final weekend for the Utes caps a semi-clunker of a final month, which ends a quasi-clunker of a conference season.
10. Arizona State (14-17/8-12)
Last week: 9
Results: lost at USC 81-73 and UCLA 59-47
NET ranking: No. 125
Next up: vs. Utah (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: It might be time for a discussion about Bobby Hurley and the future of the program. Not today, but soon. Very soon.
11. Stanford (13-17/8-12)
Last week: 11
Results: beat Cal 80-58
NET ranking: No. 111
Next up: vs. Cal (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: This marks the third time in the past five years that Stanford and Cal have dueled in the opening round of the Pac-12 tournament. The Bears won the previous two — and were the lower seed both times.
12. Oregon State (13-18/5-15)
Last week: 12
Results: beat Utah 92-85, lost to Colorado 73-57
NET ranking: No. 162
Next up: vs. UCLA (Wednesday in the Pac-12 tournament)
Comment: OSU lost both matchups against UCLA during the season, by seven points at home and eight on the road — just close enough to make us think they have a shot Wednesday afternoon.
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