Kurtenbach: 5 brash, possibly irresponsible 2024 SF Giants predictions

A championship parade? Not quite. But the vibes are great with the Giants, and some big years are coming from stars and sleepers alike.

As the 2024 baseball season starts in earnest on Thursday, I’m trying to pin down whatever emotion is coursing through my veins and the veins of so many San Francisco Giants fans.

Is this optimism?

I’m not terribly familiar with it. But I certainly don’t dislike it, either.

Yes, San Francisco’s vibes are off the charts right now. And while big additions and a strong Cactus League campaign are probably not enough to take down the billion-dollar boys in blue from the Southland, they should be enough to make the playoffs for the first time since 2021.

At the very least, Giants baseball should be fun to watch again. What a concept!

With all this optimism and positivity raging through our systems, I figured it was a good time to make some big, bold predictions.

All of these are plausible, but — let’s be honest — I’ll be lucky to get one of them right. Of course, if I do, I expect a parade down Market Street.

Will the Giants be following me? Probably not. But this team has enough to make things interesting come the fall, and that’s a nice upgrade from years past.

And between now and then, we’re going to see some big performances from these guys:

Matt Chapman will finish Top-5 in National League MVP voting

This might end up being a bad thing for the Giants as Chapman is on, effectively, a one-year contract. But he’ll have a monster year for San Francisco in the field (duh) and at the plate, where he regains his form from his last year in Oakland and first year in Toronto.

With the Giants making the playoffs, Chapman’s all-around prowess will make him a sleeper MVP candidate.

He has finished seventh and sixth in the American League vote. His first season in the National League will land him a fifth-place finish (I’m picking Trea Turner to win it), but more importantly for him, it’ll secure him a better opportunity to land a long-term contract starting in 2025.

Keaton Winn will be the Giants’ top rookie starter

I’m a big Kyle Harrison fan, but he is just 22 years old and has only 314 innings as a professional pitcher. There will be plenty of fun ups, but there will be a few downs, too. He’s a high-ceiling player, but the floor is still rather low. That’ll improve with time.

Winn, meanwhile, is a 26-year-old with a high floor and a ceiling that I think is underrated. He is just straight-up nasty and I can’t wait for his first start of 2024.

With a sinker that is as good as any pitch in baseball — that sandbag he tosses up there at 90 miles per hour is 43 percent better than the average sinker in baseball, per Stuff-plus — and a plus slider (19 percent better than league average), Winn already has enough for a breakout season.

After all, there are only nine projected starters in baseball who had better Stuff-plus numbers than Winn posted in his 42 innings last year.

And if Winn’s upper-90s four-seam fastball becomes a weapon this season, he has a chance to have a truly special year, particularly at Oracle Park with the Giants’ improved defense behind him.

Yes, Harrison can win National League Rookie of the Year. But when we look up in September, don’t be surprised if Winn is one of the better and more reliable starters in the league.

Jorge Soler will end the drought

Barry Bonds in 2004. As all serious Giants fans know, that was the last time San Francisco had a 30-homer hitter.

Jorge Soler will put an end to that streak of futility in 2024.

He hit 36 home runs last year despite playing in Miami, and that’s because he doesn’t hit cheap ones. Few players in baseball can hit the ball harder, and Soler showed a more judicious eye at the plate last year, allowing him to be one of baseball’s finest sluggers. According to Statcast, if he played his 2023 exclusively in Oracle Park, he’d have hit 32 home runs.

I think he can beat that number with more protection in the lineup than he had in Miami.

Let’s call it 35 and never talk of Bonds’ mark and the dead-ball era that followed again.

Jung Hoo Lee will score 100

I was stunned to learn that Hunter Pence was the last Giant to score 100 runs in a season. He did it a decade ago.

Even more depressing? Kevin Pillar was the last Giant to touch home 80 times in a season. No wonder he got that MVP vote…

But Jung Hoo Lee appears to be a leadoff man of the highest order, and I think he’ll hit .300 with an on-base percentage near .400.

Bold? You bet. But he tore up the KBO, the Cactus League, and the National League seems like the next logical step.

Lee will be atop the lineup every day, and his glove will play the whole game, too. With a much-improved lineup behind him, I think he can outperform his most positive preseason projection—84 runs, per Steamer—and reach 100.

He looks so in control it’s hard not to believe he’ll hit the ground running in the big leagues.

And with excellent base running and (I think) the potential to steal 20 bags, it can all add up to a three-figure run total.

The Iceman will be near-perfect

Do you know the Giants’ single-season record for saves? Of course not. You’re a normal person with things to do.

So let me tell you: It’s 48, shared by Rod Beck (1993) and Brian Wilson (2010).

Well, I think they’ll be tied for second in a few months.

Camilo Doval is going to save 50 this season.

That’s 11 more than he had in 2023, sure, but seeing as Doval blew eight saves and pitched — for some unholy reason — in 22 games without the ability to register a save, I think the potential is there for a boost.

Add in that I think Bob Melvin will be more judicious about when he uses Doval, the Giants will win at least 10 more games than last year, and their offense—while good—won’t create many blowouts, and I think it’s a perfect storm for Doval to dominate in 2024.

Let’s call it 50 saves in 52 chances with 65 relief appearances overall — a dominant season for the unflappable reliever that will stand in the Giants record books for years to come.

Oh, and add another All-Star Game to the mix, too. He’ll be there.

And in this era of disposable starting pitchers, can I interest you in some Doval votes for National League Cy Young?