While tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rattling global oil markets, energy security is no longer defined solely by access to fossil fuels. What China has understood, and Europe has not, is that security now depends on electricity systems that can deliver low-cost power at scale and support heavy industry.
The question for Europe is no longer whether it should become a global power, but whether it can do so democratically and in time to shape, rather than endure, the new world order that is now emerging. Fortunately, European citizens are increasingly aware of what is at stake.
Though few have noticed, Mexico has reduced its daily homicide count by 41% over the past 18 months, owing to President Claudia Sheinbaum’s pioneering new strategy for confronting organized crime. Such a sharp reduction is an historic achievement for Mexico – and puts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele's thuggish methods to shame.
The existing global financial architecture was supposed to ensure stability by providing liquidity when capital retreats and cushioning vulnerable economies against shocks. So, why is the system doing exactly the opposite?
Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán spent 16 years perfecting a model of media capture that aspiring autocrats around the world now seek to emulate. But his defeat showed that even vast propaganda machines are neither impermeable nor infallible in the face of a determined independent press.
Africa’s development-finance system is expanding rapidly, with new instruments and investors entering markets across the continent. Yet the analytical capacity needed to track risks and price them in real time has not kept pace, allowing risks to build.
India’s deliberate, strategic shift from economic seclusion to global engagement is arguably one of the most consequential structural changes of the 21st century. Indian leaders now understand that self-reliance is achieved through integration, not autarky, and the results speak for themselves.
As systemic and geopolitical risks mount, financial uncertainty has become the new normal for developing countries, leading to a growing chorus of Global South policymakers calling for more collaboration and coordination. The newly formed Borrowers’ Platform makes this a reality.
By leaving US allies and rivals alike scrambling to respond to an unpredictable and unreliable superpower, the war in the Middle East is driving an historic geopolitical realignment that will shift the global balance of power over the next decade. The scale of the changes will rival those following the end of the Cold War.
The Iranians know that the usual US endgame in a war of choice is to walk away from defeat, take the humiliation, and move on. The most likely outcome in the current confrontation, then, is that Iran will prevail, the oil price will fall, and the US private-equity interests that have profited from the war will go bust.
