Local elections 2023: The key battlegrounds to watch from Surrey to Stoke – and what it will mean for Rishi Sunak
RISHI Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer face their first duel at the ballot box tomorrow as voters go to the polls for local elections.
While millions will be choosing councillors to run their local services, the party leaders will be anxiously seeing how they are faring in the race for No10.
These polls will be the last until next year’s general election and form the final genuine barometer of the public mood towards both the Tories and Labour.
Strategists will pay particular attention to the Projected National Vote – where boffins calculate how the results would translate in a general election.
Anything less than a double digit lead would come as a blow to Sir Keir’s dreams of becoming PM.
Party strategists will also be poring over key battlegrounds, as Mr Sunak tries to cling on to the coalition of 2019 voters in the Red and Blue Walls.
Party expectations management is already in full swing.
The Tories say they predict losses of around 1,000 seats – a very weak outcome.
But if losses amount to less than 1,000 Tory MPs and spinners can chalk up the result to being “not as bad as predicted”.
Similarly, Labour are touting projected gains of around 400 seats.
Any more than that in reality will be painted by the party as a huge victory.
One important indicator of how well the parties are really doing is the results in key bellwether seats.
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Here are the seats to watch
Swindon
Labour is throwing the kitchen sink at trying to capture Swindon Council from the Tories.
Sir Keir launched his local elections campaign in the town – and ever since shadow cabinet ministers have been ordered to the area to knock on doors.
The area is also a relative bellwether, with its two national constituencies voting Tory since 2010, and before that Labour since 1997.
Plymouth
A major battle is being fought in Britain’s Ocean City, with both parties trying to wrestle the council back from “no overall control”.
In the past quarter century the authority has had four Tory majority administrations and five Labour majority administrations – making it a clear swing area.
A mammoth cull of more than 100 mature trees ordered by the Tories has seen the local party face anger in recent weeks.
It could be the decisive nudge to give Sir Keir a victory on election night.
Darlington
Darlington is a crucial test of whether Mr Sunak retains the Red Wall support that carried Boris Johnson to a landslide three years ago.
The PM recently visited the Tees Valley town – where he illustrated the blight of pot holes – in a sign the seat is high on his target list.
The Conservatives nabbed control of Darlington four years ago, and keeping it blue will give them hope that support in working class heartlands has not ebbed away.
Dover
Dover will demonstrate just how well the Tories’ tough talk on migration is working.
The issue of small boats is huge locally, with many illegal arrivals in Kent swallowing up swathes public services and resources.
Mr Sunak has made stopping the boats one of five key pledges to define his premiership.
The vote in Dover will show how much confidence the electorate has that he’ll achieve it.
Stoke
Stoke-on-Trent will be another key test of whether the Red Wall is holding up or slowly crumbling.
Policing minister Chris Philp recently visited the area to push the Tories’ tough on crime messaging.
Other Tory MPs have also poured down to campaign.
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Surrey
Surrey will be a key test of just how much momentum the so-called Blue Wall has.
The Lib Dems have painted themselves as a massive threat to Tories in leafy pro-European southern counties.
They want to target more liberal-minded voters who value strong public services and don’t align with the more hard-line Brexiteer views of ministers such as Suella Braverman.
In 2021 the Lib Dems defeated the Tories in North Shropshire after a by-election was triggered by the Owen Paterson sleaze scandal.
The same happened again in 2022 in Tiverton and Honiton following the standing down of “tractor porn” MP Neil Hudson.