What are Dolphins’ playoff odds after getting back to .500? What if they win out? And what one other result makes the biggest difference?
The Miami Dolphins’ improbable run from 1-7 to playoff contention continued with a sixth consecutive win on Sunday to get back to .500 at 7-7 with three regular-season games left.
When the Dolphins pulled off the Nov. 11 upset of the Baltimore Ravens to get to 3-7, the run to this point appeared realistic given the schedule. If they can beat the Ravens, they can beat the Jets twice — the latest a 31-24 outcome at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday — and the Giants and Panthers at home.
They did all that. Now, the schedule toughens up for the final three-game stretch. Miami has road games at the New Orleans Saints (7-7) and Tennessee Titans (9-5) and a home finale against the New England Patriots (9-5) on the horizon.
If the Dolphins want to turn this streak into a playoff berth, they probably have to win them all. They surrendered any margin for error when they went on that seven-game losing streak that included impermissible last-second losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons.
If the Dolphins do run the table, Miami’s playoff chances are pretty good. A 10-7 finish, without taking any other results into account, gives the Dolphins a 70% chance of making the AFC playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight. They finished Sunday, after their win over the Jets and other league results, with a 10% chance, so the biggest key is winning out.
Any one loss for a 9-8 record crushes the Dolphins’ playoff hopes significantly. If it’s to the Saints on Monday Night Football next week, the odds are back to 10%. A Jan. 2 defeat at the Titans while winning the other two, and it’s 6%. The finale with the Patriots is most important, as dropping that one after topping the Saints and Titans gives Miami a 4% chance.
So, we’ve established that the giant cluster of AFC teams vying for wild-card playoff spots is unlikely to give way to the Dolphins with even one loss. Either way, they’re going to need some help elsewhere.
What other result is most vital to push a 10-7 Dolphins team that wins out into the postseason?
That answer can be found this week in Sunday’s Bills at Patriots divisional matchup. Before the Dolphins play their next game on Dec. 27, they’ll know if they got some of the biggest help they need, which is a Buffalo win over New England.
That result alone only bumps the Dolphins up from 10% to a 14% chance of making the playoffs, but if coupled with a Dolphins sweep of their remaining games, which they need to pull off anyway, it makes all the difference. The combination of a Bills win in Foxborough on Sunday and three Dolphins wins puts Miami all the way up at 98 percent.
That’s because that scenario means Buffalo would overtake New England in the AFC East, and the Dolphins, sweeping the Patriots in this case, would own a wild-card tiebreaker over them. Conversely, the Dolphins were swept by the Bills this season, so they want to avoid any tiebreak scenario involving Buffalo. If the Dolphins win out and the Patriots beat the Bills on Sunday, Miami’s odds swing down to 52 percent.
More immediately, who should the Dolphins be rooting for in Monday’s Browns-Raiders game that was postponed from Saturday? Before turning the page entirely to Week 16 and beyond, there’s still this Week 15 game with AFC playoff implications left to be played.
The difference is minimal, but if you play out everything else that the Dolphins need — to win out and a Sunday Bills win over the Patriots — a Raiders win over the Browns increases the Dolphins’ playoff probabilities to greater than 99 percent, while a Browns win over the Raiders keeps them at 98.
There are a number of different permutations that can occur, but at its simplest, the Dolphins’ easiest route to the postseason essentially involves Miami winning its final three games and Buffalo topping New England on Sunday. If those four results occur, it’s highly unlikely the Dolphins are kept out of the postseason.