The best bet for the World Baseball Classic championship between the USA and Japan is to bet on fun
The World Baseball Classic is down to two teams: United States and Japan. The baseball juggernauts are set to face Tuesday at loanDepot park in Miami with a championship on the line.
Japan advanced in dramatic fashion Monday with a walk-off, ninth-inning double to beat Mexico. The U.S. secured its spot in the final a day prior with a 14-2 drubbing of Cuba.
Oddsmakers expect a much closer title game.
USA, the last WBC champion in 2017, is a slight favorite to win again with -132 odds at FanDuel. But odds for the U.S. to cover 1.5 points are +118. Japan — a two-time WBC champion — has +108 moneyline odds and -144 odds ATS. So where’s the smart money?
At BetMGM, 75% of tickets are on the USA to win, which is an understandable slant at a U.S. sportsbook.
However, I’m skeptical of this thing playing out how the home country wants it to.
World Baseball Classic betting update:
75% of tickets are on the USA to beat Japan pic.twitter.com/wYNTuopXpA
— BetMGM (@BetMGM) March 21, 2023
Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly gets the start for the U.S. against Japan’s Shota Imanaga. Kelly was shaky in his only other WBC appearance, needing 61 pitches to get through three innings and allowing two runs against Colombia in pool play.
This will be the first start for Imanaga, who threw 48 pitches in three innings of relief work against Korea in pool play. A solo homerun that game is the only score he’s allowed while striking out five batters through four innings in two WBC appearances. He gets the nod over Shohei Ohtani, who threw 71 pitches in Japan’s Round 2 win Thursday — the Los Angeles Angels could still come on in relief.
The matchup between Kelly and Imanaga is key, because pitching is where Japan has the biggest advantage. They have a tournament-best 2.33 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and .181 opponent batting average. The U.S. has a 4.33 ERA, while allowing batters to hit .265 — which is trouble against Japan’s tournament-best .471 on-base percentage.
The U.S. packs the most power, with a .567 slugging percentage, but Japan’s small-ball style — they lead the tournament with eight stolen bases — might be more reliable considering the pitching on each side. That leaves me more inclined to take the plus oddds on Japan’s moneyline.
But my advice for those who don’t want to bet on a U.S. loss is to simply bet on fun. Pick a game that goes over 10.5 points with Japan covering 1.5 points in an exciting finish. That would be the best result for all of us.