NFL prop bets, Week 9: Fading Josh Jacobs and Rachaad White, betting Dak Prescott
Good news: I finally broke my thoroughly unprofitable .500 streak in Week 8. Bad news: I did so by hitting one of 10 official plays.
Yep, pretty grim stuff, but at least we’re out of stasis. Fading my picks last week would have resulted in a 90 percent win rate and, as such, I’m gonna recommend you do the same this week. I’m going to go through the same process as before, picking out lines that make sense, researching prior performances, etc — and then, logically, the best response to this would be to do the exact opposite.
That’s not idea, but it’s better than being a coin flip. Here are my prop bets to fade in Week 9. Official plays are in bold.
Dak Prescott OVER 249.5 passing yards. It’s a number he’s hit in three of his last four games against the Eagles and Philly’s secondary is a bit of a weak spot at the moment.
Rachaad White UNDER 49.5 rushing yards. The Texans rank fifth in the NFL in yards per carries allowed and the Buccaneers’ blocking remains weak up the middle. White is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has gone over 40 yards only twice this season.
Josh Jacobs UNDER 71.5 rushing yards. Jacobs showed signs of life last week and may get the ball a lot in an offense that now revolves around rookie fourth round pick Aidan O’Connell. But that was supposed to be the plan for the New York Jets vs. the Giants last week and Breece Hall gained 17 yards on 12 carries. Jacobs has sprung for 70-plus yards only once this season.
Jeff Wilson OVER 5.5 receiving yards. His snap share went up in his second active week of 2023 and he got two targets. Expect him to be a little more involved in Week 9.
Robert Tonyan OVER 4.5 receiving yards. He’s probably gonna get one target, but he’s probably gonna catch it (eight-plus receiving yards in four of his last five games)
Jayden Reed OVER 2.5 receptions. He’s had at least four targets in all but one game this season and at least five in all but two. Pair this up with OVER 33.5 receiving yards.
Brandin Cooks UNDER 37.5 receiving yards. The only time he’s gone over this total was in a blowout win. The Cowboys have the Eagles this Sunday.
Last week: 1-9 (.100)
Season to date: 26-38 (.406)