College Football Week 10 Picks: USC Won’t Be Enough to Stop Washington

It’s finally November: when the games get bigger and the season hits its dramatic finish. We never know how things will go, but we are most certainly here for it. As riveting as things are on the field, the picks race has tightened up. Who wins as we come down to the finish?

All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Last week: Forde 2–3, Johnson 3–2. Season: Forde 23-24-2, Johnson 23-24-2.

Washington (-3) vs. USC

Johnson: Washington. Washington has enough defense; USC does not. The Trojans have the firepower, but the Huskies should be able to get a stop or two here and edge out the three-point spread.

Forde: Washington. How bad is USC’s defense? The 213 points surrendered in the last five games is merely the most in a five-game stretch in school history. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and his array of receivers are not the offense to get well against. While I expect Caleb Williams and the Trojans to put up points of their own, it won't be near enough to stay within three of the Huskies.

LSU vs. Alabama (-3)

Johnson: Alabama. Look, I understand scared money don’t make money, but I think that Bama’s defense can put enough of a lid on Jayden Daniels to make it work.

Forde: Alabama. This game matches a not-vintage LSU defense against a not-vintage Alabama offense. I think the Crimson Tide has made more meaningful improvement on that side of the ball, and it has the defense to at least slow down the dual-threat cyclone that is Daniels. This is also a revenge game for Nick Saban after the overtime loss last year in Baton Rouge.

Oklahoma (-6) vs. Oklahoma State

Johnson: Oklahoma State. I think the Pokes’ newfound rushing attack will pay dividends in this game. Keep Dillon Gabriel on the sideline, and take the air out of the ball.

Forde: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are one of the hotter teams in the nation (four straight wins) and absolutely have one of the hottest players in the nation in running back Ollie Gordon (553 rushing yards the last two games, more than 1,000 for the season). Throw in some smoldering home-field motivation to beat the team that is abandoning the Big 12 and Bedlam rivalry, and this stacks up invitingly for the Pokes.

Mizzou vs. Georgia (-15.5)

Johnson: Georgia. I fear this is the game where we all remember that Georgia is in one weight class and an SEC East challenger—no matter how formidable—is certainly not. Mizzou is arguably the best story in the SEC this season, but itthey just won’t have enough here when the Dawgs flex their muscles.

Forde: Georgia. The book on these Bulldogs seems to be that they raise their level of play when they perceive a threat or a doubt. Kentucky presumably presented a challenge, so Georgia smoked the Wildcats 51–13. Same with Florida in the wake of Brock Bowers’s injury, so Georgia grilled the Gators 43–20. Missouri, with a top-15 ranking, provides some external motivation for Kirby Smart’s team.

Kansas State vs. Texas (-4)

Johnson: Texas. I’m placing faith in a Texas team in a spot where physicality matters, because I do truly believe this team is built differently. This is a spot where they need to be a professional program and just get in and out with the win, even though they don’t have their best players. I think they’ll do that and cover.

Forde: Kansas State. I'm conflicted here, but the Wildcats have played better against the pass in their three-game winning streak, and the Longhorns are playing a backup QB in Maalik Murphy. If K-State wins the turnover stat it can win this game outright. Or, at worst, lose by a field goal.